On the proper, you’ll be able to see TOTAL2 , which reveals the entire crypto market cap with out Bitcoin . I feel that is necessary, as a result of a lot of that is Ethereum , stablecoins, and DeFi. DeFi with stablecoins might show to be a vital use-case for crypto, notably if inflation continues to worsen. Even when the blue situation happens for Bitcoin , I feel we are able to see a really giant rebound for Bitcoin dominance, and disproportionate losses for Ethereum and others. It is because there are a number of bubbles concerned on Ethereum . It could be fascinating to see if ETH can really keep away from important losses of 80%+.
The place we stand
I’ve performed a variety of evaluation on M2 , DXY , and markets, and I’m nonetheless leaning in direction of an unlimited monetary market meltdown within the close to future. Here’s a writeup on this topic:
The inventory market appears to be in the course of a blow-off section. There may be normally some accompanying occasion. For occasion, I doubt Evergrande would be the solely agency to strategy default. On this case, I feel it might make sense to see TOTAL2 return to its earlier all-time excessive, even when it continues up first. I additionally suppose the yellow situation on the left is barely extra lifelike. Lots of it is determined by regulation. If lawmakers see crypto as a menace fairly than an answer, it’s attainable Bitcoin even returns briefly to the $20k stage.
I’m not shopping for any extra crypto at these costs, since I’m already snug with my publicity. If I had no publicity, I’d maybe allocate somewhat bit now, however not plan to purchase extra till someday late subsequent yr, and even in 2023. At that time, I feel it might be extra clear which method issues are headed. I don’t plan on shopping for extra crypto till I see one other bearish interval (even when Bitcoin merely dumps again to $48-65k) Nonetheless, we are able to nonetheless see some cash hit some fairly ridiculous market motion earlier than the market lastly unwinds. And I see this as a chance to take revenue and wait to build up extra stock.
For occasion, the crypto TOTAL market cap can be pushing all-time highs. I feel it’s attainable to see crypto attain Gold’s market cap by the top of the cycle. That’s my highest estimate. That places us round $11-12 Trillion.
I do additionally nonetheless suppose Bitcoin dominance might attain a brand new low by the cycle peak. This might simply put the altcoin market at $8B, with Bitcoin $3-4B. That will imply $180-250k Bitcoin , though it will possibly additionally shoot increased than that.
Now for some cash with cycle-finish targets and long run help areas the place I’d ultimately purchase. These are all fully speculative, and there’s no assure any of those will hit. These are purely estimations primarily based on the place I consider we’re with regard to world markets. All of those situations contain an extended than regular bear market, and a possible restructuring of the house.
Ethereum
Stellar Lumens ( XLM )
Ripple XRP
Litecoin (LTC)
Chainlink (LINK)
NANO
Cardano (ADA)
Polkadot (DOT)
Binance Coin (BNB)
DOGE
VeChain (VET)
NEO
Solana (SOL)
The situation this evaluation doesn’t account for is the situation the place there may be really restricted additional upside. Structurally this doesn’t appear to make a lot sense, given the traits for TOTAL and TOTAL2 . Nonetheless, it’s finest to be ready for one thing like this as properly and train applicable threat. Because of this I’m not including extra at these ranges, however seeking to take revenue as an alternative.
This isn’t meant as monetary recommendation – that is for private use, hypothesis, and leisure.
-Victor Cobra
