Cryptocurrency bettors boosted the chances of a U.S.–Iran truce after President Donald Trump shifted his stance from “hit and obliterate” to describing talks with Tehran as “good and productive.”
Peace At Final?
Over $38 million has been wagered on the end result, which can be resolved after an “official ceasefire settlement” is reached, requiring public affirmation from each the U.S. authorities and the Iranian authorities that they’ve agreed to halt hostilities.
In the meantime, the likelihood of the Iranian regime surviving the battle climbed to 80%, whereas the probability of Iran’s Supreme Chief, Mojtaba Khamenei, being eliminated earlier than a ceasefire fell to 38%.
A Pakistan-Brokered Truce?
Iran’s overseas ministry, nonetheless, denied any dialogue had taken place, saying Trump’s announcement was designed to affect power costs.
Simply earlier than Trump’s remarks, a number of new Polymaket wallets surfaced, with no prior transaction historical past and all created concurrently, wagering a cumulative $160,000 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, raising suspicion of insider trading.
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