Solana’s SOL (SOL) is down 72% from its all-time excessive of $295 and effectively under the $188 degree seen throughout its spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launch in October 2025. Since early December 2025, spot SOL ETF inflows have slowed whereas the value retraced sharply over 4 months.
On the identical time, Solana’s onchain volumes and income metrics proceed to rank larger towards opponents, elevating questions on whether or not SOL’s longer-term value prospects tilt towards a return to its all-time excessive.
SOL ETF resilience aligns with community use
Spot SOL ETFs launched in late October 2025, drawing over $100 million in common web inflows throughout their first 5 weeks. Since December 2025, the weekly inflows have decreased, averaging $20 million to $25 million as SOL value slid to $86 in February 2026.
Throughout the four-month drawdown, the cumulative outflows whole simply $11.3 million over two weeks. Spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, by comparability, have logged 4 consecutive months of detrimental flows in the identical interval.
Solana’s community exercise tells a distinct story than its value. Over the previous 30 days, Solana processed $108 billion in decentralized trade (DEX) quantity, forward of Ethereum’s $63.7 billion and Base’s $31.48 billion. Volumes in January reached $117 billion, exceeding these in December and November for the chain as effectively. The weekly averages since January 2025 have hovered close to $20 billion to $25 billion.
Within the final 24 hours, Solana generated $3.1 million in app income versus Ethereum’s $2.95 million. Energetic addresses stood at 2.17 million towards 682,236, whereas chain charges reached $722,706 in comparison with Ethereum’s $356,438.
Solana’s RWA sector has additionally climbed to an all-time excessive of $1.71 billion, up 45% in 30 days, however Ether holds $15 billion of the $25.37 billion distributed asset worth in that trade.
Related: ETH’s next big move depends on daily close above $2.1K: Data
SOL assist cluster and valuation hole
Crypto dealer Scient noted two macro areas that will form a possible backside. The primary is the 0.75 Fibonacci retracement zone of $60 to $70, a degree related to deeper pullbacks inside bigger uptrends.
The second is a weekly demand truthful worth hole (FVG) between $22 and $29, an space of prior liquidity imbalance that preceded the explosive rally to $200 from $25.
For now, the construction stays capped as the value holds under the weekly resistance of $120.
On the weekly chart, SOL has already examined the demand zone of $51 to $80, aligning with that retracement pocket, and will head for a restoration from its present value.
UTXO Realized Worth Distribution (URPD) data provides context. Over 6% of the provision final moved inside the present value cluster, making a dense value foundation zone. The subsequent important focus, above 3% of provide, sits between $20 and $30.
From a valuation standpoint, SOL is close to a realized provide cluster, whereas the ETF positioning has not unwound, and DEX turnover leads different chains regardless of its decrease whole worth locked (TVL).
The value compression alongside constant capital inflows and rising community use reveals a measurable hole between exercise and valuation.
Whether or not that hole resolves by way of SOL’s value motion relies on how the $51 to $80 degree and the $120 resistance degree work together with these elements over the approaching months.
Related: Solana leads crypto recovery with 10% gain: Is $100 SOL price next?
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