Standard Chartered Maintains $100,000 Bitcoin Price Target for 2026

Standard Chartered has reaffirmed its $100,000 Bitcoin value goal for the top of 2026, arguing that latest market stress linked to Strategy’s Bitcoin gross sales is unlikely to have an effect on the cryptocurrency’s medium-term outlook.

In a notice printed Friday, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s world head of digital belongings analysis, described the latest developments at Technique as “largely noise fairly than a sign.”

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for roughly $216 million between June 29 and July 5. The corporate used the proceeds to fund preferred-stock dividend funds and enhance its money reserve. It now holds 843,775 BTC, representing greater than 4% of Bitcoin’s most 21 million provide.

The sale adopted a smaller disposal of 32 BTC in early June, which marked a notable departure from Technique’s long-standing positioning as an organization that may repeatedly accumulate Bitcoin with out promoting it.

Technique’s Bitcoin accumulation mannequin has stalled

For a number of years, Technique benefited from its shares buying and selling at a considerable premium to the worth of its Bitcoin holdings. This relationship is measured utilizing mNAV, which compares the corporate’s enterprise worth with the worth of its BTC reserves.

When the ratio was comfortably above 1, Technique may challenge shares, use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin and probably enhance its valuation by greater than the worth of the newly issued inventory.

That premium has since disappeared. Standard Chartered estimates Technique’s mNAV at roughly 1 on an enterprise-value foundation, whereas some equity-based calculations place the corporate’s valuation under the worth of its Bitcoin holdings.

Technique’s mNAV historical past. Supply: mNAV.com

Technique acquired its Bitcoin for a mixed $63.7 billion, whereas its holdings are actually value roughly $54 billion. The corporate additionally reported an $8.3 billion digital asset loss within the earlier quarter, virtually all of which was unrealized.

With its earlier accumulation mannequin now not functioning as successfully, Technique has begun utilizing Bitcoin as backing for its preferred-stock merchandise.

STRC turns into central to Technique’s new method

Standard Chartered believes Technique is transitioning towards a mannequin wherein Bitcoin helps STRC, often known as Stretch, a perpetual most well-liked inventory that operates equally to a credit score instrument.

STRC pays a 12% annual dividend in money, with the speed adjusted month-to-month to encourage the shares to commerce close to their $100 par worth. The safety has roughly $10 billion in notional worth excellent.

Nonetheless, STRC fell as little as $71.25 on June 26 after Technique disclosed its first Bitcoin sale. The popular shares have since recovered to round $90 however stay under par, indicating that buyers haven’t but totally accepted the corporate’s new technique.

Kendrick argued that Technique’s principal problem is explaining the shift clearly to buyers.

“I see what is going on at MSTR proper now as a communication problem, nothing extra,” he wrote.

Technique introduced a Bitcoin monetization program on June 29 that enables the corporate to promote BTC periodically, together with to boost as a lot as $1.25 billion for its dividend reserve.

The corporate’s greenback reserve for STRC dividends at the moment stands at $2.55 billion, offering roughly 17.4 months of protection.

Clear communication may scale back the necessity for additional gross sales

Kendrick stated credible communication in regards to the monetization program may help STRC’s return towards its $100 par worth and scale back stress on Bitcoin.

As a result of STRC is closely overcollateralized by Technique’s Bitcoin holdings, Standard Chartered believes the corporate could not must conduct further BTC gross sales if buyers grow to be assured that dividend funds are adequately funded.

Kendrick in contrast the method to a central financial institution pledging to do “no matter it takes.” If the dedication is taken into account credible, the corporate could not want to hold out large-scale gross sales.

Standard Chartered expects STRC to maneuver nearer to par, limiting the danger of additional Bitcoin promoting and lowering near-term downward stress on the cryptocurrency.

Different analysts stay divided on the implications of Technique’s coverage. JPMorgan analysts stated formalizing the corporate’s means to promote Bitcoin introduces “avoidable two-way danger” by turning Technique into each a possible purchaser and vendor.

Grayscale analysis head Zach Pandl provided a special evaluation, arguing that the gross sales strengthen Technique’s steadiness sheet and will assist Bitcoin set up a extra sustainable market backside.

Regardless of the uncertainty surrounding Technique, Standard Chartered continues to view the episode as a brief disruption fairly than a change in Bitcoin’s broader trajectory. The financial institution has due to this fact retained its $100,000 end-2026 forecast.