Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the S&P 500 in half of US buying and selling classes over Glassnode’s newest measurement interval, ending a chronic stretch of shedding extra classes than it received.
Key factors:
- Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 by returns in 50% of US buying and selling classes over the previous 90 classes, per Glassnode information.
- Bitcoin’s session win fee has not exceeded 50% since March 2025.
- The S&P 500 gained a median of 10.7% within the three months after the seven midterm elections since 1922 by which Democrats received each chambers beneath a Republican president.
Bitcoin ends stretch of weak point in opposition to S&P 500
Knowledge from onchain analytics platform Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of Wall Road buying and selling classes over a rolling 90-session interval.
The studying, masking the 90 classes by way of Wednesday, marks an enchancment after an prolonged interval by which Bitcoin misplaced extra classes than it received.
“The win fee has not been above 50% since March 2025; for a lot of the previous yr, Bitcoin misplaced extra classes than it received,” Glassnode wrote within the newest version of its common publication, The Week Onchain.
“A return to an excellent break up ends an extended stretch of underperformance. Ought to the win fee climb above 50% and maintain there, it will present Bitcoin regaining energy in opposition to equities.”
BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 per-session returns. Supply: Glassnode
Glassnode added that Bitcoin’s common per-session beneficial properties have been additionally “barely increased” than these of the S&P 500.
Historic information favors shares after Democratic midterm sweeps
Democrats’ wins within the US midterm elections have additionally drawn consideration to historic inventory market beneficial properties following related outcomes.
Knowledge from crypto asset supervisor Capriole Investments reveals that Democratic sweeps of Congress beneath Republican presidents have traditionally been adopted by sturdy S&P 500 returns.
Associated: Bitcoin hits $80.5K as US stocks rally on midterm election results
Of the 26 midterm elections since 1922 (excluding this yr’s vote), Democrats received each the Home and Senate beneath a Republican president seven instances. The S&P 500 gained a median of 10.7% over the next three months.
Common beneficial properties have been 17.5% after six months and 15.5% after a yr.
“There’s merely no higher election outcome for markets than we simply had,” Capriole founder Charles Edwards commented on the info in a publish on X.
S&P 500 efficiency primarily based on Midterm Election end result. Supply: Charles Edwards on X.com
Knowledge from TradingView places Bitcoin’s rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.63. The measure has change into markedly optimistic since August, when both crypto and stocks gained because the US Treasury expanded its debt buybacks.
BTC/USD one-day chart with S&P 500 correlation information. Supply: Cointelegraph/TradingView
