Prediction markets had a breakout second during the presidential election, after they proved to be extra correct than most opinion polls.
So with numerous cryptocurrencies hovering since Donald Trump gained the election, possibly prediction markets can precisely reply the query, “How high will Bitcoin go?”
On the crypto-based Polymarket, the place the so-called French whale netted a large post-election windfall, bettors have numerous choices for Bitcoin, which is at the moment buying and selling at about $91,000.
For a contract on what worth Bitcoin will hit in November, the chances are 72% that it will attain $95,000. The value with the following highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.
A separate contract that asks if Bitcoin will be above $90,000 on Nov. 22 reveals 60% odds, whereas one more contract asking if Bitcoin will attain $100,000 in November solely has a 42% probability.
On the prediction market Kalshi, a contract that asks how high Bitcoin will get earlier than 2026 reveals 52% odds for $125,000 or above and 44% odds for $150,000 and above.
If prediction markets aren’t your factor, and you like a forecast from a extra typical Wall Avenue analyst, there’s Fundstrat International Advisors cofounder Tom Lee.
Among the many forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, his inventory market name in 2023 turned out to be the most accurate.
As for Bitcoin, he mentioned in March that it might hit $150,000 by year-end. Whereas that appears much less doubtless now with only a month and a half left within the yr, Lee told CNBC final week that “six figures” remains to be potential earlier than the top of the yr with extra positive aspects in 2025 in 2026.
“I believe now as a result of post-halving, Bitcoin is turning into much more related, and I believe possibly the regulatory overhang is diminishing, there’s a variety of upside from right here,” he defined.
Bitcoin has already soared 32% thus far in November alone and has greater than doubled this yr. To get to $100,000, it must climb one other 10%.
However there are indicators that the post-election rally is stalling because the inventory market notched a shedding week. Nonetheless, key parts of the “Trump commerce” are driving high, like Tesla inventory, Treasury yields, and the greenback.
In the meantime, Quinn Thompson, the founding father of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, instructed Fortune this previous week that he’s optimistic Bitcoin will attain the $100,000 milestone soon.
“I really feel good that we hit it by year-end,” he mentioned. “Very potential by finish of month, however we’ll see.”
