Following Trump’s watershed speech on the Nashville Bitcoin convention in July 2024, Sen. Cynthia Lummis launched her Bitcoin reserve invoice, explicitly articulating that it’s aimed to cut back U.S. debt. The brand new VanEck research reveals that if the act is adopted, Bitcoin might offset 18% of the nationwide debt earlier than the federal government beneficial properties the precise to promote Bitcoin reserves.
On Feb. 21, 2025, an funding administration firm VanEck launched a instrument indicating the potential affect of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on U.S. debt on the specified circumstances. It permits the federal government to set the variety of bitcoins bought by the federal government yearly, the typical worth at which bitcoins are being purchased in 2025, and the typical compound progress fee of the BTC worth and U.S. debt.
The calculator instrument is predicated on VanEck research outlining how quickly the debt could also be offset by the BTC reserve on the set parameters, such because the BTC worth, and so forth. It’s price noting that the research assumes that the Bitcoin Act launched by Lummis is getting adopted this yr with out severe modifications.
The research webpage comprises a disclaimer that the calculations are primarily based on previous developments and don’t essentially mirror the long run Bitcoin worth or the nationwide debt quantity.
What can we study from VanEck’s research?
The research is predicated on the concept of the U.S. treasury gathering one million bitcoins in 5 years and holding them for 20 years. In keeping with the act, in the course of the 20 years, the bitcoins held in treasury may solely be spent to cowl the nationwide debt.
Primarily based on VanEck research made in December 2024, the U.S. will amass a million bitcoins by 2049. The whole worth of those bitcoins will quantity to $21 trillion and can offset round 18% of the nationwide debt, which can attain round $116 trillion by 2029, in response to VanEck.
These figures might be appropriate at particular common compound progress charges of U.S. debt and BTC worth. The VanEck researchers assume nationwide debt might be rising by 5% per yr, going from the present $36 trillion analysis to $116 trillion in 2049. VanEck predicts that, on common, BTC worth might be rising by 25% every year, growing from almost $100,000 to $21 billion per coin in 2049 when the federal bitcoins are not barred from promoting.
The federal government might amass multiple million bitcoins as it might accumulate further cash via seizing, donations, and different methods.
All in all, VanEck research signifies that Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will hardly pay off U.S. debt anytime quickly which is according to what Lummis claimed in July 2024 when she was speaking about lowering the debt, not masking it.
To completely pay off the nationwide debt (if the expansion charges are appropriate), the federal government might want to buy over 5 million bitcoins.
May Bitcoin ever pay off U.S. debt utterly?
In August of 2024, in an interview broadcast on Fox, Donald Trump assumed that Bitcoin would most likely pay off trillions of U.S. debt.
Even if we don’t consider potential debt progress (in response to the Congressional Price range Workplace, debt may reach round $50 trillion by 2035), the U.S. authorities will want 36 million bitcoins at $1,000,000 (the analysis typically named by varied Bitcoin fans because the close to future Bitcoin worth).
The issue is that such an quantity of bitcoins is unattainable to get as the utmost provide of Bitcoin is ready at solely 21 million, and its pre-programmed shortage is seen as one of many essential drivers of its worth.
The corporate holding the most important BTC bag is BlackRock. As of February 2025, it owns over half of one million bitcoins. One other avid bitcoinist, Technique’s Michael Saylor, claimed that “there’s solely room for one nation-state to purchase up 20% of the Bitcoin community.” Word that he’s not even contemplating a 3rd a part of the availability for any nation whereas he owns round half one million bitcoins.
Amassing even a million bitcoins is a problem–no marvel a powerful Bitcoin proponent Sen. Lummis provides the U.S. authorities 5 years to finish the duty of accumulating a million BTC. The BTC worth should attain $36 billion by 2030 in order that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve can be used to cowl U.S. debt (nonetheless, likely, the debt worth will develop by that point). Even essentially the most bullish predictions usually are not bullish sufficient to say one thing like that.
One other downside is that exchanging these bitcoins for money received’t be a simple process, because the U.S. might want to discover sufficient consumers. The dumping of this large quantity will have an effect on the worth negatively, discounting the remaining reserves.
Generally, it’s secure to say Bitcoin could also be seen as a partial resolution whereas Trump’s phrases about Bitcoin paying off U.S. debt are fairly baseless on the present stage.
