Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has ventured into oversold territory a number of occasions towards Bitcoin (BTC) in latest months, however the altcoin has but to indicate any indicators of discovering a price backside. The buying and selling state of affairs is definitely fairly much like a earlier situation, and ETH’s market construction means that it could repeat itself in Q2 to Q3 of this 12 months.
Ether’s repeat breakdowns level to extra draw back
The relative energy index (RSI) on ETH’s 3-day timeframe stays under 30, a degree that sometimes alerts a possible bounce.
Nevertheless, historic patterns present that earlier dips into oversold situations have did not mark a definitive backside. Every occasion has been adopted by one other leg decrease, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.
ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Supply: TradingView
Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has undergone repeat breakdowns, with losses of round 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% occurring in speedy succession. Furthermore, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are trending decrease, confirming the dearth of bullish energy.
X-based market analyst @CarpeNoctom highlighted ETH’s adverse price efficiency, noting that the ETH/BTC pair has failed to verify a bullish divergence—when the price makes decrease lows however the RSI makes larger lows—on its weekly chart.
ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Supply: TradingView/CryptoNoctom
ETH ETF outflows and onchain information trace at additional weak point
The “cursed” ETH/BTC downtrend stands out when in comparison with the broader crypto market. This consists of persistent outflows witnessed throughout the US-based spot ETH ETFs, as well as adverse onchain information.
The online flows into the spot Ether ETFs have dropped 9.8% in March to $2.54 billion. As compared, the spot Bitcoin ETF internet flows are down 2.35% in the identical interval to $35.74 billion.
Supply: Ted Pillows
In the meantime, Ethereum’s gas fees—measured by each day median gasoline consumption on mainnet—had been sitting round 1.12 GWEI as of March, down by practically 50 occasions what they had been only a 12 months in the past.
Ethereum median gasoline charges vs. ETH price (in greenback phrases). Supply: Nansen
“Regardless of the second rally of ETH price into 2024 12 months finish, exercise on mainnet as measured by gasoline consumption by no means absolutely recovered,” information analytics platform Nansen wrote in its newest report, including:
“That is downstream of some issues however a lot of the exercise has shifted to Solana and L2s over 2024.”
Nansen argued that they continue to be cautiously bearish on ETH as a consequence of its unfavorable danger/reward ratio in comparison with BTC and lower-valued altcoins with area of interest market focus.
An absence of demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is additional seen in its future quantity information.
Notably, Bitcoin futures quantity has rebounded 32% from its Feb. 23 lows, reaching $57 billion on March 18. As compared, ETH’s buying and selling exercise stays principally flat, in keeping with onchain information platform Glassnode.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures quantity. Supply: Glassnode
The ETH/BTC pair could drop one other 15%
ETH/BTC pair is forming a bear pennant sample on the each day chart, characterised by a interval of consolidation inside converging trendlines forming after a steep decline.
Associated: Standard Chartered drops 2025 ETH price estimate by 60% to $4K
A bear pennant technically resolves when the price drops under the decrease trendline and falls by as a lot because the earlier downtrend’s top. Making use of the identical rule on ETH/BTC brings its draw back goal for April to 0.01968 BTC, down 15% from the present ranges.
ETH/BTC each day price chart. Supply: TradingView
Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs stay in a pointy downward trajectory, with the ETH/BTC pair buying and selling far under these key ranges, signaling a persistent bear market construction.
Regardless of the looming draw back danger, a bullish invalidation could happen if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant’s higher resistance and flips the 50-day EMA into assist.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
