Key takeaways:
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Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped over 90% from $3 billion to $228 million in 4 weeks.
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Whereas sturdy ETF inflows usually drive Bitcoin rallies, latest knowledge reveals worth actions can happen independently.
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Regardless of short-term promoting strain, long-term BTC whale shopping for suggests a possible continuation of the BTC uptrend.
The Bitcoin (BTC) market posted a 90+% drop in spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, falling from $3 billion within the final week of April to simply $228 million this week.
Traditionally, a slowdown in ETF inflows has impacted BTC worth, notably when day by day inflows averaged over $1.5 billion for consecutive weeks. To grasp the potential influence on Bitcoin, let’s study 4 key intervals of great spot ETF activity and their correlation with BTC worth actions.
In Q1 2024, from Feb. 2 to March 15, the spot ETFs recorded $11.39 billion in web inflows over seven weeks, driving a 57% worth surge. Though BTC costs peaked in week 5, as $4.8 billion inflows within the closing two weeks didn’t push its worth increased.
Equally, Q3 2024 noticed $16.8 billion in inflows over 9 weeks from Oct. 18 to Dec. 13, fueling a 66% rally. Nonetheless, when inflows slowed within the tenth week, Bitcoin’s worth dropped 9%, reinforcing the hyperlink between ETF flows and worth corrections.
In Q1 2025, $3.8 billion in inflows over two weeks (Jan. 17–24) coincided with a brand new all-time excessive of $110,000 on Jan. 20, but general costs fell 4.8%.
Most just lately, Q2 2025 (April 25–Might 9) noticed $5.8 billion in inflows and a 22% worth rally, although Bitcoin had already gained 8% within the prior two weeks regardless of damaging netflows.
This knowledge challenges the notion that spot ETF inflows constantly drive costs. Whereas Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 counsel sturdy inflows gas rallies, Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 present costs can stagnate or fall regardless of important inflows. The Q2 2025 rally, partially impartial of spot ETF activity, hints at different drivers like easing US tariffs, retail curiosity or Bitcoin whale accumulation.
With inflows now at $228 million, the historic development leans bearish, suggesting a possible correction. Nonetheless, a counterargument emerges from latest whale activity, which paints a extra bullish image.
Related: 6 signs predicting $140K as Bitcoin’s next price top
Bitcoin faces promoting strain, but whales could retain the development
Bitcoin reveals short-term promoting strain because the Purchase/Promote Strain Delta turns damaging, in accordance to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson. The chart shows that whales are beginning to offload BTC between $105,000 and $100,000, a stage flagged as dangerous by Wedson. This bearish shift, with a damaging cumulative quantity delta, signifies promoting strain within the quick time period.
But, long-term shopping for strain stays sturdy, suggesting this dip is a correction, not a reversal. Information from CryptoQuant highlights that whales are taking comparatively fewer income within the present interval than in earlier worth peaks. Nameless analyst Blitzz Buying and selling noted,
“In contrast to earlier rallies, we will see that whales have taken considerably much less revenue throughout this latest surge. This might point out that the upward development could proceed. This chart needs to be monitored intently.”
Related: Bitcoin bulls aim for new all-time highs by next week as capital inflows soar
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
