Key takeaways:
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Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and low leverage counsel the BTC rally has room to develop.
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US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond gross sales help a Bitcoin push past $110,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to maintain its bullish momentum after reaching a new all-time excessive of $109,827 on Could 21, which led merchants to query whether or not derivatives markets primarily drove the rally. From a broad perspective, the $77 billion in Bitcoin futures open curiosity has undoubtedly performed a job. Nevertheless, a better have a look at the knowledge exhibits a extra optimistic outlook for additional worth positive aspects.
The present 7% annualized Bitcoin futures premium is effectively inside the impartial vary of 5% to 10%, which has been typical for the previous two weeks. This indicator can simply exceed 30% in periods of robust optimism, so the present degree is comparatively low. At the similar time, the absence of extreme leverage reduces considerations a few rally pushed primarily by derivatives.
Balanced order books and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows level to spot-driven rally
For comparability, throughout the earlier Bitcoin $109,346 all-time excessive on Jan. 20, the annualized futures premium reached 15%, exhibiting a a lot larger degree of leveraged bullish positions affecting the worth. Subsequently, the present Bitcoin derivatives market seems more healthy, suggesting robust demand in spot markets.
Throughout the January bull run, Bitcoin’s worth on Coinbase traded at a premium in comparison with different exchanges. This so-called Coinbase premium just isn’t current now, which implies shopping for stress is extra evenly unfold out — an indication of a more healthy market.
Whereas extreme shopping for stress on a single alternate just isn’t essentially bearish, it may well make it simpler to set off unsustainable worth surges when liquidity is low. This knowledge helps the concept that derivatives markets weren’t the primary driver of the current worth will increase.
Furthermore, the $1.37 billion in web inflows to identify Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States between Could 15 and Could 20 additional means that spot consumers, reasonably than derivatives merchants, have been the major pressure behind the rally.
Regardless of the lack of conviction in Bitcoin futures, a number of indicators level to additional upside. Forced liquidations of bearish BTC futures positions have been comparatively low at $170 million between Could 18 and Could 21, cementing the concept of a spot-driven rally. Compared, the rally to $104,000 on Could 9 triggered $538 million in liquidations over three days.
Associated: Is Bitcoin price close to a cycle top? — 5 indicators that help traders decide
On Could 21, Bitcoin choices markets confirmed a slight enhance in demand for put (promote) choices, however nothing uncommon. For comparability, the put-to-call ratio at Deribit dropped to 0.4x throughout the earlier bull run on Jan. 20, reflecting decrease confidence as a consequence of diminished volumes in name (purchase) choices.
Bitcoin’s upward motion could have been restricted by macroeconomic components, particularly as the tariff struggle continues. Nonetheless, the potential for the worth to achieve $110,000 and better is partly based mostly on the weak place of the US Federal Reserve. Injecting liquidity might ease recession considerations, but it surely additionally reduces the enchantment of authorities bonds, which favors risk-on property like Bitcoin.
This text is for normal data functions and isn’t supposed to be and shouldn’t be taken as authorized or funding recommendation. The views, ideas, and opinions expressed listed below are the writer’s alone and don’t essentially mirror or signify the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Cointelegraph by Marcel Pechman Bitcoin hits new highs in the absence of ‘unhealthy’ leverage use — Will the rally proceed? cointelegraph.com 2025-05-21 20:00:00
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