Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin bulls purpose to push BTC above $110,000 by Could 30 to capitalize on $4.8 billion in name options.
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Spot BTC ETF inflows and weak put positioning give bulls a powerful edge within the month-to-month expiry.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its largest month-to-month options expiry of 2025, with complete publicity reaching $13.8 billion. This occasion provides bulls an opportunity to secure Bitcoin’s value above $110,000, as bears have been caught off guard by a 25% rally over the previous 30 days.
The open curiosity in Bitcoin put (promote) options stands at $6.5 billion, however 95% of those positions are set under $109,000. Due to this fact, if Bitcoin’s value holds close to present ranges, lower than $350 million value of put options will stay related at expiry.
Conversely, the open curiosity in Bitcoin name (purchase) options as much as $109,000 totals $3.8 billion. Nonetheless, this imbalance doesn’t imply each name possibility holder was betting on Bitcoin’s rise. Some merchants could have bought these options as a strategy to hedge their exposure above sure value ranges.
Among the many most important possibility methods traded at Deribit up to now two weeks is the “quick name,” which is commonly utilized by buyers searching for a fixed-income return so long as Bitcoin’s value stays above a specific threshold. Equally, the “bull name unfold” technique hedges in opposition to draw back danger by sacrificing positive aspects above a sure value.
Sturdy Bitcoin ETF inflows scale back the chances of additional value decline
If Bitcoin maintains the $109,000 stage, most bullish methods ought to ship constructive leads to the Could options expiry. Nonetheless, bears could attempt to affect BTC futures markets to restrict their losses because the expiry date approaches.
The full open curiosity in Bitcoin futures is at present $79 billion, displaying sturdy demand for short (sell) positions. Nonetheless, this technique might backfire if Bitcoin rises above $110,000, as bears may be pressured to shut their positions.
Net inflows of $1.9 billion into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between Could 20 and Could 22 point out that demand above $105,000 stays strong. In the end, bears’ major hope lies in a weaker macroeconomic setting, which might enhance danger aversion and scale back demand for Bitcoin.
Associated: Bitcoin hits new highs in the absence of ‘unhealthy’ leverage use — Will the rally continue?
Bitcoin bulls purpose for $110,000 by Could 30
Beneath are 4 probably situations primarily based on present value tendencies. These outcomes estimate theoretical earnings primarily based on open curiosity imbalances and don’t account for complicated methods.
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Between $102k and $105k: $2.75 billion in calls (purchase) vs. $900 million in places (promote). The web outcome favors the decision devices by $1.85 billion.
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Between $105k and $107k: $3.3 billion calls vs. $650 million places, favoring calls by $2.65 billion.
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Between $107k and $110k: $3.7 billion calls vs. $350 million places, favoring calls by $3.35 billion.
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Between $110k and $114k: $4.8 billion calls vs. $120 million places, favoring calls by $4.7 billion.
Bulls can maximize their positive aspects by driving BTC above $110,000, which might assist set a brand new all-time excessive. Nonetheless, the continuing bullish momentum relies on developments within the ongoing tariff conflict, which has been a key focus in current weeks.
This text is for common info functions and isn’t meant to be and shouldn’t be taken as authorized or funding recommendation. The views, ideas, and opinions expressed listed below are the writer’s alone and don’t essentially mirror or signify the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
