Key takeaways:
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SOL/ETH has damaged beneath a rising wedge sample, signaling a possible 40% decline.
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Solana’s memecoin income has collapsed since April, weakening its core worth proposition.
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Commonplace Chartered warns Solana might underperform as Ethereum’s L2 ecosystem grows extra aggressive.
Solana’s (SOL) multiyear outperformance in opposition to Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is dropping momentum, with technical breakdowns and weakening onchain exercise pointing to a possible sharp decline within the SOL/ETH pair subsequent.
SOL enters rising wedge breakdown stage
As of Might 29, the SOL/ETH pair has confirmed a breakdown from its multimonth rising wedge sample, a bearish construction that usually precedes vital declines.
In technical phrases, a rising wedge breakdown usually ends in a drop equal to the sample’s most peak.
For SOL/ETH, this initiatives a draw back goal for July, close to 0.038 ETH, representing a 40% decline from present ranges.
The 50-week exponential shifting common (50-week EMA; the pink wave) round 0.0628 ETH is providing interim help. A decisive weekly shut beneath this stage would seemingly affirm the bearish continuation towards the 0.038 ETH goal.
A bounce, however, might have SOL reclaim the wedge’s decrease trendline as help, which can delay the breakdown situation. Breaking above the wedge’s higher trendline will seemingly invalidate the 40% crash setup altogether.
Cooling memecoin frenzy hints at SOL/ETH crash
The breakdown in SOL/ETH aligns with a visual decline in memecoin-driven exercise on Solana.
A key indicator is Pump.enjoyable, the most important memecoin launch platform on the community, which reveals a pointy drop in day by day price income since early April.
Each day charges peaked in Q1 2025 however have since fallen to near-yearly lows, signaling lowered speculative exercise on the chain, according to Dune Analytics.
The platform had been a major contributor to Solana’s revenue growth, particularly between December 2024 and March 2025.
Throughout this era, whole cumulative charges surged previous 3 million SOL as retail merchants flooded the community to launch and commerce meme tokens. These metrics have crashed ever since, weakening considered one of Solana’s major worth drivers.
A Might 27 report from Standard Chartered additional reinforces the draw back narrative. The financial institution warned that Solana might underperform if it can’t diversify past memecoins, which presently dominate its transaction exercise.
Commonplace Chartered mentioned Ethereum is gaining floor with scalable layer-2 options that provide comparable charges and deeper infrastructure for real-world functions.
Associated: Ethereum flashes ‘altseason’ signal as ETH price eyes $4.1K
Chartist Alex Clay asserts that an “Ethereum outperformance season” has already arrived, reiterating confidence within the rising wedge breakdown on the SOL/ETH charts.
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
