Matrixport Market Observation: BTC High-Range Fluctuation, ETH Synchronized Upward Movement, RWA Ecosystem Accelerating Expansion

Final week (July 2 – July 8), pushed by macroeconomic components and geopolitical stimuli, BTC broke by $110,000, rising over 5%, adopted by high-level fluctuations, with ETH rising in sync. Influenced by the discharge of non-farm payroll knowledge, strain on the greenback, and elevated expectations for Federal Reserve fee cuts, BTC attracted capital consideration. On July 3, the value broke by $109,000, reaching a excessive of $110,529.18, after which fluctuated within the vary of $108,500-$109,500, with a most weekly improve of 5.16%. On July 6, stimulated by Musk’s institution of the “American Get together” and public help for BTC, the BTC value surged quickly, nearing $110,000, with a single-day improve of over 5%. Nonetheless, robust resistance above prompted BTC to retreat to round $108,000, with the present value stabilizing round $108,387. Final week, ETH’s value motion was typically in keeping with BTC, with a most weekly improve of 11.06%, and the present value stabilizing round $2,605 (Binance spot, July 9, 13:29).

After the Nationwide Day vacation, U.S. shares fell sharply from their highs. As of the shut on July 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Common fell greater than 600 factors at one level in the course of the day, closing down over 400 factors, whereas the Nasdaq index fell almost 1%. U.S. President Trump introduced a most 40% tariff improve on international locations akin to Japan and South Korea, reigniting commerce tensions and dragging down the efficiency of the inventory and bond markets.

Market Interpretation

Musk’s “American Get together” Sparks Political Debate in Web3, BTC Market Sentiment Heats Up

On July 6, Musk introduced the institution of the “American Get together” on X, publicly opposing the “Too Large to Fail Act,” emphasizing the necessity to “restore your freedom,” and clearly supporting BTC, stating that “fiat foreign money has no hope.” Following the information, Tesla’s U.S. inventory fell over 7% in after-hours buying and selling. The occasion rapidly resonated inside the crypto group and was seen as an modern experiment in Web3 politics and decentralized mobilization.

BTC was boosted by Musk’s assertion, with the value hovering near $110,000. The American Get together is predicated on blockchain and digital property as a political consensus, aligning with the macro development of strain on the greenback’s credibility and world regulatory easing. Market evaluation signifies that BTC, as an asset to hedge towards inflation and systemic danger, is gaining a brand new spherical of political “endorsement.”

Within the brief time period, BTC is consolidating at excessive ranges, with the market specializing in subsequent coverage instructions and promoting strain at excessive ranges. In the long run, the accelerated integration of Web3 know-how and world monetary governance is predicted to repeatedly strengthen BTC consensus, driving a brand new sample within the digital asset ecosystem.

Non-Farm Employment Exceeds Expectations, Charge Lower Expectations Cool, BTC Excessive-Stage Fluctuations

The non-farm payroll knowledge launched final week confirmed that the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding the anticipated 110,000, and the unemployment fee fell to 4.1%. This means that the job market stays resilient, and the danger of a U.S. financial recession has eased within the brief time period. Because of this, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve sustaining rates of interest in July rose to 76.7%, whereas the likelihood of a cumulative 50 foundation level fee reduce in September fell to 21.8%.

BTC continued to strengthen earlier than the non-farm knowledge was launched, getting into a high-level fluctuation vary after breaking by $109,000. Influenced by the better-than-expected employment knowledge, BTC skilled a pullback in the course of the day, with costs fluctuating across the $108,000-$110,000 vary over 24 hours. Total, robust employment knowledge has quickly suppressed the Federal Reserve’s aggressive fee reduce house, stabilizing the greenback and U.S. Treasury yields, resulting in decreased volatility in danger property and a extra rational market sentiment. Future consideration must be paid to U.S. CPI and different macro knowledge, in addition to Federal Reserve statements, to evaluate whether or not the crypto market can achieve new upward momentum.

RWA Market Sees Twin Progress in Customers and Property, Ecosystem Expansion Enters New Cycle

As of July 8, the whole on-chain market worth of RWA reached $24.52 billion, remaining flat month-on-month, however the variety of asset holders and issuers elevated by 25% and 27%, respectively, highlighting a major development of ecosystem “enlargement.” When it comes to capital allocation, personal credit score barely decreased to $14.1 billion, whereas U.S. Treasury holdings elevated to $7.5 billion, indicating a desire for steady property. The dimensions and variety of stablecoin customers additionally noticed slight development, offering liquidity help for the market. Total, whereas the market worth stays flat, on-chain innovation is lively, and the RWA market is predicted to enter a brand new development cycle of consumer and asset resonance.

It’s price mentioning that lately, Matrixport’s Chief Working Officer Cynthia revealed at an offline occasion that Matrixport has established an XAUm strategic reserve to boost its capacity to reply to cyclical fluctuations and can proceed to advertise the on-chain integration of cornerstone property like gold, creating new pathways for buyers to entry high quality RWA. This transfer not solely enhances monetary stability but additionally displays that main establishments are actively increasing the appliance depth of commodities like gold within the on-chain ecosystem, bringing extra prospects for on-chain RWA asset allocation.

Market Highlights

U.S. Coverage Mixture Stimulates File Highs in U.S. Shares, Tariff Upgrades Convey Uncertainty

In early July, U.S. President signed the “Too Large to Fail Act,” with large-scale tax cuts and financial stimulus boosting the economic system, main the S&P 500 index to achieve a brand new excessive. On the similar time, Trump introduced a rise in tariffs on 12 international locations to 10%-70%, anticipated to take impact in August, elevating world commerce and inflation dangers. Within the brief time period, U.S. shares profit from favorable insurance policies and fee reduce expectations, displaying an optimistic total development, however with excessive valuations, warning is required relating to potential volatility from tariffs and revenue adjustments.

BTC Whales Activate, 80,000 BTC Switch Attracts Market Consideration

Final week, eight early wallets transferred a complete of 80,000 BTC, valued at roughly $8.69 billion, setting a document for the most important single switch in the course of the “Satoshi Period.” The transferred BTC have been all mined earlier than 2011, with unique prices as little as $0.78-$3.37, yielding over 100 thousand occasions revenue. At present, these BTC haven’t flowed into exchanges, however their holding scale accounts for as a lot as 13.4% of MicroStrategy, exceeding the whole of a number of listed establishments. The huge switch is seen by the market as a possible promoting strain sign, which can intensify BTC volatility and cautious sentiment within the brief time period, requiring shut consideration to subsequent capital flows.

Establishments Aggressively Purchase ETH, SharpLink Drives ETH Treasury Craze

Nasdaq-listed firm SharpLink Gaming spent $463 million to buy 176,000 ETH, with over 95% already staked, turning into the most important publicly listed holder of the asset. This information drove the inventory value to surge by 400%, with firms like Bitmine Immersion following go well with, accelerating the development of institutional treasury formation.

Disclaimer: The above content material doesn’t represent funding recommendation, gross sales affords, or buy affords to residents of the Hong Kong Particular Administrative Area, the US, Singapore, or different international locations or areas the place such affords or invites could also be prohibited by legislation. Buying and selling in digital property might contain vital dangers and volatility. Funding choices must be made after cautious consideration of private circumstances and session with monetary professionals. Matrixport will not be chargeable for any funding choices made based mostly on the knowledge supplied herein.