BTC Faces Ghost Month Pullback Risk

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin marks its steepest pullback in a month, with the ghost month pattern hinting at additional draw back to $105,000.

• Onchain information exhibits an increase in US and Korean spot demand, pointing to a short-term restoration.

Bitcoin (BTC) noticed a pointy correction on Thursday, slipping under $117,000 on Aug. 14, marking its steepest pullback in a month. The day by day chart flashed a bearish engulfing sample for the primary time since July 15, elevating issues that seasonal weak spot throughout Asia’s “ghost month” might lengthen the downturn.

Regardless of the dip, onchain information level to resilient dip-buying exercise. The Coinbase Premium Index climbed to a month-to-month excessive yesterday, signaling robust US spot demand. In Asia, the Kimchi Premium Index turned optimistic, indicating renewed Korean shopping for stress.

Crypto dealer Hansolar summed up the sentiment and stated collective purchase bids had been unfold throughout Coinbase, Bitfinex, and the South Korean market. 

The bullish undertone is additional supported by stablecoin flows. Based on crypto analyst Maartunn, USDC inflows to exchanges surged to $3.88 billion for the reason that value dip, suggesting merchants are gearing as much as deploy capital.

Knowledge additionally indicates that capitulation indicators had been muted. Simply 16,800 BTC had been moved to exchanges at a loss by short-term holders (STHs), properly under volumes seen in previous sell-offs. For context, beforehand, when Bitcoin dipped greater than 5%, over 48,000 BTC had been bought at a loss by STHs. 

📊MARKET UPDATE: #Bitcoin slipped 5% on Aug. 14, however capitulation indicators had been muted with simply 16.8K $BTC moved to exchanges at a loss from Brief-Time period Holders, far lower than in previous drawdowns.

Blue arrow pattern exhibits shrinking STH promote stress. 👍 pic.twitter.com/sVUvRSVXj5

— Cointelegraph Markets & Analysis (@CointelegraphMT) August 15, 2025

Related: Analysts see Bitcoin buyer exhaustion as retail shifts to altcoins

Can ‘ghost month’ lengthen BTC’s correction interval?

Nameless analyst Exitpump notes that Bitcoin might discover help between $116,000 and $117,000, the place each spot and futures shopping for curiosity is displaying up within the order books.

Whereas this might result in swift restoration, a recurring seasonal sample tied to Asia’s “ghost month” has usually coincided with sharp pullbacks.

This 12 months’s ghost month runs from Aug. 23 to Sept. 21. Within the Chinese language lunar calendar, it marks the seventh month of the 12 months, a interval usually related to dangerous luck in Asian tradition. Whereas the phenomenon doesn’t immediately impression markets, its psychological impact on merchants could be vital, influencing threat urge for food and profit-taking habits.

Traditionally, Bitcoin has proven an inclination to dump throughout ghost month. Since 2017, BTC’s common peak decline on this interval has been roughly 21.7%, with notable drops akin to -39.8% in 2017 and -23% in 2021.

With Bitcoin at the moment hovering close to $117,320, a drawdown in keeping with the historic common might drag costs into the $105,000–$100,000 vary earlier than any significant rebound. This aligns with key technical help zones, the place long-term consumers might look to step in.

Whereas some years have ended ghost month with optimistic ROI, the recurring mid-period volatility means merchants ought to stay cautious. Any deeper correction into late August might set the stage for a stronger restoration in This autumn, after testing the resolve of short-term bulls. 

Related: BlackRock Bitcoin, Ether ETFs buy $1B as BTC price mostly fills CME gap

This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.