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Has Bitcoin’s four-year cycle really been broken?

cryptonews100_tggfrn by cryptonews100_tggfrn
September 25, 2025
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Has Bitcoin’s four-year cycle really been broken?
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The cryptocurrency industry is undergoing a structural shift, potentially breaking its traditional four-year cycle, driven by institutional adoption and new financial infrastructure.

  • Institutional Adoption via ETFs: The 2024 launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is a watershed event, attracting $34 billion in net inflows. These products have drawn pension funds and banks, transforming crypto into an institutional asset class. Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $150 billion in assets, accounting for 6% of its supply.
  • The “Great Rotation”: Ownership is shifting from retail investors to long-term institutions. While cyclical traders sell, institutions accumulate, pushing the cost basis up and establishing a new price floor. ETFs have become the primary buying channel, altering historical supply dynamics.
  • Expansion of Stablecoins and Real-World Assets (RWA): Stablecoins are evolving beyond trading tools into payment and lending systems. The $30 billion RWA market, including tokenized treasuries and credit, is building on-chain financial infrastructure. Recent approval for using stablecoins as derivatives collateral opens new institutional use cases.
  • Building On-Chain Capital Markets: Projects like BlackRock’s BUIDL are connecting traditional capital to crypto, allowing DeFi to use legal collateral. This moves the market away from pure speculation cycles towards sustainable, real-world financial applications.
  • Future Outlook: Cryptocurrencies are evolving into permanent financial instruments. This may lead to performance differentiation among assets based on sustainable business models, rather than industry-wide price surges driven by narratives.

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The cryptocurrency business seems to be breaking with the standard four-year cycle. The institutional adoption of exchange-traded funds, the tokenization of real-world belongings, and the evolution of stablecoin infrastructure are reshaping the whole market.

In a report launched on September 24, an analyst utilizing the pseudonym Ignas identified that the itemizing of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024 will likely be a watershed occasion – since April, crypto ETFs have led all asset courses with a web influx of $34 billion.

These merchandise have attracted the participation of pension funds, consulting companies and industrial banks, reworking cryptocurrencies from retail hypothesis targets to institutional allocation belongings on par with gold and the Nasdaq index.

At the moment, the belongings beneath administration of Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded US$150 billion, accounting for six% of the whole BTC provide; Ethereum ETFs management 5.6% of ETH’s circulation.

The SEC’s adoption of common itemizing requirements for commodity ETPs in September accelerated this development, paving the best way for fund filings for belongings reminiscent of Solana and XRP.

The report calls this shift in possession from retail traders to long-term institutional traders the “Nice Rotation in Crypto Belongings.”

Whereas conventional cyclicalists are promoting, institutional traders proceed to build up, pushing the price foundation upward and forming a brand new value backside.

ETFs have develop into the first buying channel for Bitcoin and Ethereum, essentially altering the availability circumstances that drive historic cyclical patterns.

Stablecoins have gone past the scope of buying and selling instruments and developed into fee, lending and monetary administration features.

The $30 billion real-world asset (RWA) market is a mirrored image of this growth, with tokenized treasuries, credit score, and commodities constructing on-chain monetary infrastructure.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee not too long ago permitted stablecoins as collateral for derivatives, opening up institutional software situations past spot demand.

Fee-oriented blockchain tasks (reminiscent of Stripe’s Tempo and Tether’s Plasma) are driving the mixing of stablecoins into the true financial system, whereas digital asset treasury (DAT) firms are offering fairness market entry for tokens that haven’t but been permitted for ETFs.

This mechanism not solely gives exit liquidity for enterprise capital, but additionally introduces institutional funds into the altcoin market.

The RWA tokenization, which establishes benchmark rates of interest by authorities bonds and credit score devices, is constructing an actual capital market on the chain.

BlackRock’s BUIDL and Franklin Templeton’s BENJI act as bridges, connecting trillions of {dollars} of conventional capital to crypto infrastructure. This enables DeFi protocols to depend on authorized collateral and lending markets, breaking away from the cycle of pure hypothesis.

This structural shift alerts that cryptocurrencies are evolving from cyclical speculative belongings to everlasting monetary devices.

Nonetheless, as institutional capital prefers sustainable enterprise fashions fairly than purely narrative-driven ones, particular person efficiency differentiation could exchange the final rise in costs.



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