Key takeaways:
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ETH ETFs have opened entry, however flows stay cyclical.
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SOL’s plumbing is about: CME futures are dwell, with choices slated for Oct. 13 (pending approval).
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The SEC’s generic requirements now permit quicker spot-commodity ETP listings past BTC and ETH.
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For SOL to outperform ETH, it should want sustained creations, tight hedging, actual onchain utilization and continued developer momentum.
It’s true that Ether (ETH) already has the pinnacle begin within the exchange-traded fund (ETF) race: Spot Ether ETFs started buying and selling on July 23, 2024, attracting approximately $107 million in first-day web inflows and opening a mainstream path for buyers via brokers and retirement accounts.
Nevertheless, Solana’s (SOL) market infrastructure is catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Alternate (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options slated for Oct. 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Alternate Fee adopted “generic listing standards” that streamline how exchanges can checklist spot commodity exchange-traded merchandise (ETPs), doubtlessly widening the gate past Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Additionally, outdoors the US, SOL already trades in regulated funding wrappers via Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.
With that entry already in place, the query is whether or not a US SOL ETF can gas lasting demand that permits Solana to outperform Ether on each value and fundamentals.
Earlier than tackling that, let’s set the context.
What ETH ETFs modified, and what they didn’t
Spot Ether ETFs started buying and selling within the US on July 23, 2024. On the primary day, they recorded roughly $1 billion in buying and selling quantity and about $107 million in web inflows, opening a mainstream channel for buyers akin to registered funding advisers (RIAs) and establishments. Nevertheless, this nonetheless trailed the size of Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January.
Flows since then have been cyclical. By mid-2025, ETH skilled durations of web creations punctuated by outflows. By late August and mid-September 2025, reviews confirmed renewed power, with multi-week inflows into Ether merchandise that lifted whole crypto belongings beneath administration (AUM). Briefly, ETFs improved entry, however they didn’t eradicate market cycles.
At occasions in 2025, Ether outperformed many large-cap crypto belongings, supported by regular ETF demand and visual institutional and treasury accumulation. This sample means that whereas ETFs don’t alter core community fundamentals, they’ll affect which asset leads throughout phases of capital rotation.
One design selection nonetheless issues: US ETH ETFs launched without staking, limiting their revenue potential in contrast with holding native ETH instantly. The SEC is actively reviewing proposals to permit staking however, as of October 2025, has delayed decisions across multiple issuers. If staking is permitted — even partially — it might shift the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct possession.
Do you know? US exchanges publish an indicative web asset worth (iNAV) roughly each 15 seconds, permitting merchants to see the place an ETF must be priced intraday.
Solana in the present day: Utilization, progress and dangers
In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in community income, marking its third consecutive quarter main all layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, knowledge confirmed Solana matched the mixed month-to-month lively addresses of all different main L1s and L2s — sturdy indicators of utilization depth.
In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, a pointy rebound from the lows of late 2024. The provision of USDC on Solana stands at roughly $9.35 billion, whereas the community’s whole stablecoin provide greater than doubled in early 2025, climbing from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Even so, Ethereum nonetheless carried the vast majority of worth moved by stablecoins year-to-date — roughly 60% as of mid-2025 — displaying Solana’s positive factors are significant however not but dominant.
Value and velocity stay key attracts: Sub-cent charges, 400-millisecond block occasions and excessive throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized change (DEX) and perpetual futures exercise — and a focus of 2025’s memecoin increase. That quantity helps liquidity but additionally concentrates flows in speculative segments.
Two structural dangers are value watching.
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Reliability: A five-hour outage on Feb. 6, 2024, required a coordinated restart and shopper patch (v1.17.20).
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Regulation: Previous US SEC complaints have referenced Solana as an unregistered safety — a characterization the Solana Basis disputes. Outcomes on this space stay extremely policy-dependent.
Do you know? CME plans daily, monthly and quarterly expiries for SOL options, increasing hedging menus for ETF market makers.
What a US SOL ETF would seemingly change
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Entry and flows: Approval would open SOL to mainstream brokerage and retirement channels utilized by registered investment advisers (RIAs). That reduces operational friction for allocators and broadens the customer base past crypto-native venues.
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Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives give licensed members (APs) and market makers the instruments to hedge creations and redemptions, in addition to to run foundation or relative-value trades. These mechanics assist hold ETF costs near their NAV and help day-one liquidity.
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Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic itemizing requirements” widen the trail past BTC and ETH if sponsors fulfill the foundations.
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Ex-US demand alerts: Already, Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) present that regulated funding wrappers for Solana can entice investor curiosity.
Do you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies can’t be included in Undertakings for Collective Funding in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, so issuers use ETPs as a substitute. That’s the reason “ETP” seems on SIX and London Inventory Alternate (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL truly outperform ETH?
The bull case (six to 12 months post-approval)
A well timed US spot SOL ETF with sturdy early web creations might outpace Ether on whole return.
Two key levers:
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Broader entry: RIAs and brokerages achieve publicity beneath the brand new generic itemizing requirements.
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Improved market mechanics: Tighter spreads and larger capability as APs hedge through CME Solana futures and listed choices.
The bottom case
Even when a SOL ETF launches strongly, flows might revert to monitoring basic threat urge for food. Ether retains a structural institutional edge — due to its longer historical past, deeper allocator familiarity and established ecosystem. Weekly fund move fluctuations in crypto mirror how relative efficiency could also be uneven quite than decisively tilted towards SOL.
The bear case
Timelines slipping or eligibility questions beneath the US SEC framework might dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity might soften, and APs might run smaller books regardless of the supply of derivatives, limiting creations. In that state of affairs, Solana would underperform Ether, which already advantages from a extra mature distribution.
It is usually value noting that some regulators have expressed issues about diminished case-by-case scrutiny beneath the generic itemizing requirements, including coverage uncertainty for belongings past Bitcoin and Ether.
What to regulate
If a US spot SOL ETF is authorized, the true story may very well be what occurs subsequent.
The important thing alerts to look at are simple. Do creations and redemptions present persistent demand? Does CME open curiosity and choices exercise deepen liquidity? Do onchain metrics like lively customers, charge income, stablecoin settlement and developer progress maintain up past speculative bursts? If these needles transfer collectively, the chances of SOL outpacing ETH rise sharply.
A Solana ETF would remove a major access bottleneck and arrive with stronger market infrastructure than previous cycles. But Ether has already confirmed it may possibly entice billions via ETFs whereas anchoring the institutional dialog.
ETH stays the benchmark, and its flows — although cyclical — display its endurance. Whether or not Solana actually outperforms will rely much less on hype and extra on whether or not ETF inflows translate into sustained onchain adoption.
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
