Bitcoin Drop Under $100K Looms If Trump Doesn’t TACO

Key takeaways: 

• Deteriorating US-China relations, US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff enlargement and merchants avoiding lengthy leverage are including strain to Bitcoin’s draw back. 

• Bitcoin might drop under $100,000, however analysts are hopeful that subsequent week’s macroeconomic occasions will reverse the downtrend.  

Knowledge present Bitcoin’s (BTC) market construction aiming towards establishing stability from final week’s sharp correction, however intensifying headwinds from Trump’s renewed tariff warfare with China and the file size of the US authorities shutdown function an overhang on bullish buyers’ willingness to open new positions in futures markets. 

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the Coinbase Premium Index and the spot cumulative quantity delta (the online distinction between market buys and sells) for skilled and retail-sized buyers at Coinbase have been steadily trending upward since Bitcoin bought off to $107,000 on the alternate on Oct. 10. 

As proven within the chart under, the amount delta, funding, and open curiosity dynamics of the Bitcoin markets have developed for the reason that Oct. 10 sell-off. US retail and institutional buyers are clear accumulators of BTC, whereas Binance perpetual futures merchants (pink line) have been aggressively promoting. 

Evaluating Binance spot versus its futures volumes (third panel), the spot delta is optimistic, whereas the adverse perps delta highlights rising short-positions, confirming the view that perps-driven promoting is reinforcing the downtrend, whereas spot patrons’ demand supplies power at $107,000 to $108,000. 

An alternate view of this expression is proven under. 

Contemplating Bitcoin’s potential value motion within the short-term, the liquidation heatmap outlook (Binance, Bybit, BitMEX) infers that momentum merchants may chase liquidation clusters for longs at $106,300 to $104,000 and quick positions are vulnerable to closure at $115,000. 

Whereas costs are anticipated to remain rocky within the quick time period, Lekker Capital Chief Funding Officer Quinn Thompson said: 

“10/10 liquidation cleared extra leverage in $ and % of OI than your entire Jan-Apr ‘25 interval. Alternative forward is much like pre-Trump victory ‘24.”  

Following in the identical vein, macroeconomics-focused account Tom Capital reminded merchants to “simply commerce the worth motion” as the following week is anticipated to supply loads of actionable occasions. 

Over the following week, you may seemingly need to navigate these narratives:
– US CPI launch
– Potential US authorities reopening
– Fed fee lower (future cuts)
– Nikkei topping at 50,000
– Gold topping
– TACO or no TACO (Trump’s self-imposed 100% tariffs on China, and so on.)

Or you may…

— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025

This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.