Polymarket bettors have now tipped a 12% likelihood that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried shall be pardoned this 12 months, after Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao was let off the hook this week.
Polymarket odds for “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” noticed SBF’s odds rise from 5.6% to 12% in 12 hours, with greater than $6.5 million value of bets positioned in that market, together with $302,090 for the convicted crypto fraudster.
One other market on whether or not SBF shall be “Launched from custody in 2025” rose from 4.3% to 19.1% earlier than falling again to 15.5%.
Whereas SBF has filed an enchantment to scale back his 25-year sentence, it’s unlikely that there can be any important developments earlier than the tip of the 12 months, which means a pardon from Trump is probably going his solely sensible path to launch earlier than January.
Nonetheless, CZ’s pardon has naturally sparked debate over whether or not SBF deserves comparable remedy, with many saying it shouldn’t.
4 months vs. 25 years isn’t comparable, trade pundits say
Many in contrast the severity of their crimes, noting that CZ violated US Anti-Cash Laundering legal guidelines by permitting illicit funds to go by Binance, whereas SBF was convicted of fraud and conspiracy to commit cash laundering for misappropriating several billion dollars value of buyer funds.
CZ was handed a four-month sentence, whereas SBF was slapped with a 25-year prison sentence final 12 months.
Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky said he can be “really shocked” if the Trump administration pardoned SBF, declaring that SBF was a “Democratic mega-donor earlier than FTX immediately collapsed in November 2022.
“His title is half punch line half curse phrase in DC. Not a single critical individual desires this.”
Associated: Trump on CZ pardon: I’m told ‘what he did is not even a crime’
Sasha Hodder, the founder of crypto regulation agency Hodder Legislation, said the severity of CZ’s crime was nowhere close to the size of SBF’s or former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon.
“Not like SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing person funds or defrauding prospects. Binance operated as an actual trade. Withdrawals all the time labored. His ‘crime’ was compliance-related, not legal within the ethical sense.”
In reference to the pardon, Trump stated he was advised what CZ did was “not even a criminal offense” and that he was “persecuted by the Biden administration.”
CZ is a key backer of the Trump household’s World Liberty Monetary crypto platform.
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Cointelegraph by Brayden Lindrea Chances of SBF Pardon Rockets to 12% on Polymarket cointelegraph.com 2025-10-24 03:59:20
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