Key takeaways:
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XRP validates a bearish descending triangle, risking a 25% drop to $1.55.
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A bearish divergence from the weekly RSI factors to growing downward momentum.
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Low each day lively addresses sign muted community exercise and liquidity, amplifying XRP sell-off threat.
XRP value traded 11% under its worth per week in the past, and a convergence of a number of information factors indicators a deeper correction towards $1.55.
XRP descending triangle hints at a forty five% value drop
The XRP (XRP) value chart confirmed a descending triangle sample on its eight-hour chart since dropping below the $3 psychological degree in October.
A descending triangle chart pattern — characterised by a flat assist degree and a downward-sloping resistance line — resolves when the worth breaks under the flat assist degree and falls by as a lot because the triangle’s most top.
Associated: XRP ‘structurally fragile’ as 41.5% of supply at a loss
The XRP/USD pair confirmed the descending triangle when it dropped under the assist line of the sample at $2.20 on Monday.
The bulls are combating to maintain XRP above the $2 assist. A breakdown of this degree will doubtless see XRP value fall towards the measured goal of the triangle at $1.55 by the tip of November, representing a 25% decline from present value ranges.
XRP’s descending triangle breakdown echoes an earlier evaluation which warned of a attainable decline to as little as $1.61 if key assist ranges don’t maintain.
The Glassnode distribution heatmap shows that a big cluster of provide sits between $2.38 and $2.40 (embraced by the 100-day SMA and the triangle’s resistance line), the place almost 3.23 billion XRP had been acquired. This marks an space of stiff resistance for XRP, including to the tailwinds.
XRP’s bearish divergence
XRP’s draw back is supported by a bearish divergence between its value and the relative strength index (RSI).
The weekly chart under exhibits that the XRP/USD pair rose between November 2024 and July 2025, forming greater highs inside a rising channel. Nevertheless, throughout the identical interval, its weekly RSI declined to 68 from 92, forming decrease highs, as illustrated within the weekly chart under.
A divergence between rising costs and a falling RSI often signifies weak spot within the prevailing uptrend, prompting merchants to promote extra at native highs as profit-taking intensifies and purchaser exhaustion units in.
The RSI has since dropped to 39, suggesting that the market situations nonetheless favor the draw back.
The chart above additionally reveals that XRP faces stiff resistance from the 50-week SMA at $2.32. Overhead stress from this degree might proceed suppressing XRP’s value over the subsequent few weeks.
Declining XRP Ledger community exercise
Community exercise on the XRP Ledger has remained muted during the last 4 months. Onchain information from Glassnode (*3*) that the daily active addresses (DAAs) on the community at the moment are far under the excessive of 577,000 DAAs, recorded on June 14.
With solely about 44,000 DAAs on the time of writing, consumer transactions have declined considerably, presumably signaling diminished curiosity or a insecurity in XRP’s near-term outlook.
New addresses have additionally dropped to the present 4,000 each day from 13,500 on Nov. 10, suggesting declining community adoption and consumer engagement.
Traditionally, declines in community exercise sometimes sign upcoming value stagnation or drops, as decrease transaction quantity reduces liquidity and shopping for momentum.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
