Buyers holding between 1,000 and 5,000 XRP tokens might file spectacular earnings if ETFs drain XRP’s trade provide in 17 months.
The launch of XRP spot ETFs has triggered a wave of robust demand, and the early numbers present simply how shortly these merchandise maintain absorbing XRP from exchanges.
Inside solely eleven buying and selling days, the 4 newly launched ETFs pulled in about $666 million value of XRP, outperforming the six Solana ETFs, which have witnessed $618 million in internet inflows after 23 days.
This accumulation pattern has pushed a number of analysts to counsel that ETF issuers could ultimately drain the out there XRP provide on retail exchanges, creating the form of shortage strain that would lead to spectacular value surges.
How Lengthy Earlier than ETFs Drain XRP’s Exchange Supply?
One of many people discussing this risk is Brad Kimes, the founding father of Digital Views. He just lately shared that he turned to the AI mannequin Grok to perceive how a lot liquid XRP stays on exchanges and the way lengthy it could take for the ETFs to take up it.
Grok defined that, as of late November 2025, main centralized exchanges resembling Binance, Upbit, Bithumb, and OKX collectively maintain an estimated 5 to 6 billion XRP in tradable reserves.
The chatbot famous that Binance alone holds round 2.71 billion XRP, a determine that has dropped by 300 million XRP since early October and one other 100 million XRP after the ETF launches in mid-November.
Grok additionally identified that exchanges misplaced about 73 million XRP in a single day, an indication that the market continues to expertise shrinking sell-side strain as ETF shopping for grows. The chatbot mentioned this remaining liquid provide represents roughly 9% to 11% of the circulating 56 billion XRP.
When Kimes requested how lengthy the ETFs would want to pull this provide off the market, Grok reviewed inflows from Nov. 25 to 27 and noticed that issuers took in a mean of $26 million per day over these three classes.
At a value of $2.20 per XRP, this demand equals about 11.8 million XRP purchased every day. Grok calculated that, at this tempo, ETF issuers would want about 422 days to take up 5 billion XRP, and about 506 days to take up 6 billion XRP, which locations the total drain inside about 14 to 17 months.
Doable Impression on XRP Value
Nonetheless, it stays unclear how such a provide shock might influence the XRP value. To determine this, we requested Google Gemini. Notably, Gemini defined that crypto property hardly ever rise in a straight line throughout shortage occasions.
As a substitute, they have an inclination to climb exponentially as a result of patrons should push the worth greater to persuade remaining holders to promote. It then referred to Financial institution of America’s 2021 evaluation, which discovered that each $1 flowing into Bitcoin created about $118 in added market worth in periods of tight provide.
Utilizing related logic, Gemini offered a number of value zones that XRP might attain if ETFs take up many of the remaining 5 to 6 billion liquid tokens. It mentioned the primary main stage sits between $8 and $13, pushed by robust momentum.
Gemini then described a extra intense provide crunch that would raise XRP towards $20 to $25 if buyers strive to value it alongside Ethereum (ETH), particularly if ETH’s valuation climbs towards $1 trillion in a future bull run.
In its most bullish state of affairs, Gemini highlighted a full liquidity vacuum in which ETF issuers should purchase XRP at any value as a result of they don’t have any sellers left to meet demand. In that case, Gemini mentioned XRP might break above $50.
Gemini additionally offered how this climb might ensue over 17 months. It described the primary six months as an accumulation part that lifts XRP from $2.20 to $5, adopted by a realization part from months seven to twelve that pushes it towards $15, and ending with a mania part the place excessive shortage drives sudden spikes into the $20 to $50+ vary.
How A lot Your 1,000 to 5,000 XRP Would Be Worth
Such value surges would have far-reaching results on investor holdings, particularly these holding 1000’s of XRP tokens. As an illustration, knowledge exhibits that 596,029 wallets maintain between 1,000 and 5,000 XRP tokens, the third-largest tackle cluster on the XRP Rich List.
For this class of holders, the potential good points turn out to be huge. At immediately’s ranges, 1,000 XRP equals about $2,200, and 5,000 XRP equals about $11,000. If XRP reaches $50, 1,000 tokens would develop to $50,000, which represents a acquire of $47,800. In the meantime, the 5,000 XRP would rise to $250,000, creating $239,000 in revenue.
Additionally, even at the lower $20 target, the revenue can be spectacular. Notably, if XRP hits $20 as a substitute, these holding 1,000 XRP would see their holdings rise to $20,000, marking a revenue of $17,800. In the meantime, these holding 5,000 XRP would see their holdings develop to $100,000, representing a revenue of $89,000.
DisClamier: This content material is informational and shouldn’t be thought of monetary recommendation. The views expressed in this text could embrace the creator’s private opinions and don’t mirror The Crypto Fundamental opinion. Readers are inspired to do thorough analysis earlier than making any funding selections. The Crypto Fundamental is just not liable for any monetary losses.
