The US Federal Reserve introduced its third rate of interest minimize of the yr on Wednesday, lifting US equities whereas Bitcoin (BTC) slipped before bouncing back.
That dynamic has outlined the second half of 2025. Whilst capital flows into Bitcoin are more and more tied to conventional fairness traders, the cryptocurrency has continued to diverge from the inventory market.
Over the previous six months, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 18%. In the meantime, the three main US inventory indexes posted robust and constant positive aspects, with the Nasdaq Composite up 21%, the S&P 500 rising 14.35% and the Dow Jones Industrial Common climbing 12.11%.
Bitcoin has nonetheless recorded notable milestones this yr, together with setting new all-time highs and avoiding the standard “purple September” for the third yr in a row.
Right here’s how Bitcoin’s divergence from shares has widened via the second half of the yr.
July: GENIUS Act lifts crypto
July 2025 was outlined by robust fairness efficiency and a resilient danger urge for food that endured regardless of vital tariff bulletins.
Early-July commerce rhetoric induced transient turbulence, however markets shortly shifted their focus again to company earnings and underlying progress fundamentals.
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On July 9, AI chip large Nvidia turned the first company to reach a $4-trillion valuation. On the identical day, equities shrugged off trade-related shocks because the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted contemporary file highs even after the US introduced 50% tariffs on copper.
Bitcoin ended July up 8.13%, marking its strongest month-to-month efficiency in the second half of the yr so far, together with December. Crypto markets strengthened after US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, injecting contemporary optimism into the sector, notably for stablecoin-related companies.
Company adoption additionally remained a key theme, with corporations persevering with so as to add Bitcoin to their stability sheets as half of digital asset treasury methods. By July, interest in other major cryptocurrencies, together with Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL), additionally started to select up.
August: Powell’s speech powers Ether’s ATH
August was pushed by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve would soon cut interest rates. These hopes fueled a broad rally throughout conventional markets, whereas crypto moved even sooner. Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of round $124,000 on Aug. 14 because the US greenback weakened amid rising commerce tensions.
The Jackson Gap Financial Symposium then introduced markets’ consideration again to financial coverage. On Aug. 22, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a dovish signal, suggesting that charge cuts have been nonetheless doable later in the yr, pushing Ether to a new all-time high.
Equities responded positively, however Bitcoin failed to sustain its momentum. The asset noticed a pointy however transient uptick instantly after Powell’s speech earlier than resuming its decline. By month’s finish, Bitcoin’s post-ATH correction had clearly diverged from conventional markets. Bitcoin closed August down 6.49%.
September: First charge minimize of 2025
September has traditionally been Bitcoin’s weakest month. Together with June, it’s one of solely two months that posts a detrimental common month-to-month return, incomes it the nickname “purple September.”
In 2025, nonetheless, Bitcoin defied that pattern, recording its third consecutive optimistic September. The acquire got here because the Fed delivered its first charge minimize of the yr, a 25-basis-point discount justified by indicators of a cooling labor market. Bitcoin ended the month up 5.16%.
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Equities additionally responded positively, extending their third-quarter rally as markets priced in the probability of extra financial easing in October.
Bitcoin, nonetheless, confronted a brand new inner problem. The neighborhood turned divided over a significant community improve that may take away limits on how a lot arbitrary knowledge will be embedded on the blockchain.
Bitcoin Core, the software program implementation most generally utilized by miners and node operators, supported lifting the restrict. Those that view non-financial knowledge on Bitcoin as spam pushed back against the change, contributing to elevated adoption of Bitcoin Knots in its place implementation.
October: Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China
Bitcoin hit another all-time high on Oct. 6, however the month was finally outlined by the biggest liquidation occasion in Bitcoin’s historical past, with roughly $19 billion in positions wiped out.
A number of components have been recognized as contributors to the liquidation cascade that despatched Bitcoin plunging under $110,000. These included a worth glitch on Binance and the business’s heavy reliance on futures-based buying and selling, which amplified pressured liquidations as costs fell.
The quick catalyst, nonetheless, was a social media publish by President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese language imports. The remark triggered a pointy sell-off throughout each crypto and fairness markets.
Though October is sometimes called Uptober in the crypto neighborhood attributable to its traditionally robust efficiency, 2025 proved to be an exception. Bitcoin snapped a five-year streak of positive Octobers and ended the month down 3.69% at the same time as main inventory indexes recovered from the trade-related shock.
By the top of the month, the Fed delivered its second consecutive rate cut, reducing the federal funds charge by one other 25 foundation factors. In the meantime, the US authorities remained shut all through October, extending what turned the longest authorities shutdown in historical past.
November: Finish of the US authorities shutdown
October could carry the nickname Uptober, however November has traditionally been Bitcoin’s strongest month, posting a median acquire of 41.12% — greater than double October’s common return of about 20%.
In 2025, November proved to be Bitcoin’s worst-performing month of the yr, with the asset falling 17.67%. Promoting strain intensified all through the month, pushing Bitcoin under the $100,000 mark by mid-November.
The divergence from equities was pronounced. Inventory markets traded largely sideways because the US authorities shutdown got here to an finish. Traders remained cautious amid considerations over a possible AI-driven bubble. Some of these fears have been eased later in the month after Nvidia reported file earnings for the third quarter, serving to stabilize sentiment throughout know-how shares.
Bitcoin’s year-end goal slashed
To date, Bitcoin is up about 2% in December, with main fairness indexes additionally posting reasonable positive aspects. Bitcoin’s common December return at the moment stands at 4.54% on the time of writing.
Whereas the vacation season has been comparatively quiet for Bitcoin in latest years, historical past suggests the crypto market doesn’t essentially decelerate in the course of the festivities.
In December 2020, for instance, Bitcoin surged practically 47%, at the same time as market-shaking information emerged from the US Securities and Alternate Fee: the launch of a years-long lawsuit towards Ripple Labs and its executives.
This yr, a lot of the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s potential year-end rally has light. A number of market watchers have lowered their worth targets for the cryptocurrency, together with Normal Chartered.
The financial institution had beforehand forecast a year-end worth of $200,000 for Bitcoin, however on Monday, it revised that focus on right down to $100,000. Normal Chartered has additionally delayed its longer-term forecast for Bitcoin reaching $500,000, pushing the goal from 2028 to 2030.
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