Creator: Viee, a core contributor to Biteye
Edited by: Denise, a core contributor to Biteye
In the last months of 2025, a bear market ambiance started to unfold.
Bitcoin has fallen from its excessive of $120,000, ETF inflows have stalled, and varied cryptocurrencies have proven divergent tendencies. Memecoin, which as soon as ignited market sentiment, has additionally fallen out of favor. In comparison with the finish of 2021, there was no sudden regulatory crackdown this time, and other than the large crash on October 11, there does not appear to be a severe liquidity disaster. But, one thing nonetheless feels off.
If the crypto world in 2025 was a recalibration of true and false values, will crypto be better in 2026?
This text makes an attempt to search out the reply, and maybe we have to settle for the incontrovertible fact that the crypto industry might be getting into an period that’s not pushed by unilateral progress or the “on line casino narrative”.
01. With the macro atmosphere enhancing, Bitcoin stays in the highlight.
Over the previous 12 months, Bitcoin’s worth efficiency and market positioning have undergone vital modifications.
After reaching an all-time excessive of $120,000, the worth started to say no, with elevated volatility and a gradual cooling of market sentiment. In contrast to previous rallies pushed by retail traders, this spherical of good points was primarily pushed by institutional funds behind ETFs. holding prices, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. identified final month that the common holding price of US ETFs was $79,000, which many take into account considered one of the worth assist ranges. Due to this fact, Bitcoin’s present worth motion more and more resembles that of a extremely unstable institutional asset. On the one hand, it possesses an inflation-hedging position much like gold; on the different hand, like tech shares, it’s influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and danger urge for food, exhibiting beta traits.
From a broader perspective, 2025 is predicted to be a 12 months of improved sentiment for world danger property. AI is the most important theme, US shares proceed to achieve new highs, and the Federal Reserve introduced three rate of interest cuts in December, main the market again right into a part of improved liquidity expectations. The FOMC’s year-end financial projections additionally present that the US GDP progress forecast for 2026 has been revised upward from 1.8% to 2.2%–2.5%. There’s a widespread expectation that easing measures will proceed subsequent 12 months, which can be useful for property like Bitcoin.
Nevertheless, the market will not be with out dangers. If the financial system instantly weakens in 2026, or inflation unexpectedly rebounds, dangerous property might nonetheless face vital corrections.
02. Regulatory Shift: Coverage Tendencies in the United States and Hong Kong
One other necessary change in 2025 is the formalization of the regulatory framework.
In the United States, two key payments have been handed. The primary is the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, which clarifies the definition of stablecoins, reserve necessities, and issuance qualification thresholds, offering a compliance path for mainstream stablecoin issuers. This invoice was signed into regulation by the President in July 2025 and will take impact 18 months after signing or 120 days after the regulatory company points its last guidelines. The second is the CLARITY Act, which systematically delineates the boundaries between “safety tokens” (regulated by the SEC) and “commodity tokens” (regulated by the CFTC) and proposes tiered regulation. This invoice will be submitted to the Senate for consideration in January, and might then require the President’s signature; its efficient date is but to be decided. Concurrently, the SEC can also be accelerating the approval of extra crypto ETFs, opening up channels for institutional merchandise.
In Hong Kong, regulatory efforts are additionally accelerating. In 2025, the Hong Kong Financial Authority (HKMA) launched a regulatory regime for stablecoin issuers, explicitly requiring all Hong Kong-based stablecoin issuers to be licensed. Which means that in the future, issuing USD-denominated or RMB-denominated stablecoins in Hong Kong would require assembly sure capital and compliance necessities. Moreover, HashKey has already listed on the Hong Kong Inventory Trade, changing into the first compliant platform with crypto buying and selling as its core enterprise to IPO in Hong Kong, marking a big milestone.
General, the regulatory tendencies in the United States and Hong Kong are each geared toward curbing unlawful hypothesis whereas opening up reliable enterprise channels, thus selling the industry’s evolution in direction of institutionalization and compliance.
03. Three most important themes: stablecoins, prediction markets, and on-chain US shares.
Over the previous few years, the most secure progress curve in the crypto industry has really been stablecoins.
By 2025, the world issuance of stablecoins will exceed $300 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for greater than 80% of the complete. Stablecoins have gotten a part of the world cost community, and the use circumstances of each USDT and USDC have penetrated into day by day retailers and cross-border settlements.
In 2026, stablecoins are prone to be nearer to the actual world than ever earlier than, with conventional giants like Visa, Stripe, and PayPal already utilizing them for settlements. For instance, Stripe already helps retailers subscribing with stablecoins, and there are already real-world providers utilizing them.
Picture supply: a16z
Moreover, with clearer laws, authorities bond-backed stablecoins (backed by high-quality property) and regional stablecoins are anticipated to emerge, resembling the digital foreign money bridge tasks promoted by Japan and the European Union.
One other space value noting is market prediction.
Initially, most individuals thought that prediction markets have been too area of interest or non-compliant. However now, they’re slowly reworking into a mix of “on-chain betting + pricing instruments” below themes resembling US elections, sports activities video games, and financial information.
For instance, Kalshi obtained a proper futures license from the US CFTC, permitting it to legally supply prediction buying and selling associated to macroeconomic information, and its present valuation has climbed to $11 billion. In the meantime, Polymarket, leveraging subjects resembling the US election and leisure occasions, has change into a well-liked venue for customers to put bets and monitor public opinion.
By 2026, prediction markets might transfer past pure hypothesis. Customers might not simply wager on wins and losses, however slightly vote with their cash, expressing their judgment on the likelihood of a specific consequence. This collective wisdom-based pricing methodology might be referenced and utilized by media, analysis establishments, and even buying and selling methods. Moreover, AI will unlock new potentialities for prediction markets, permitting them to maneuver past human betting and robotically analyze information, place orders, and even generate new betting traces. This can make prediction markets sooner and smarter, regularly reworking them into instruments for assessing danger and tendencies, slightly than simply locations for betting.
Lastly, and this can’t be ignored, is the growth of on-chain US shares.
Briefly, the crypto industry is not solely buying and selling crypto property, but additionally bringing real-world property onto the blockchain. For instance, Securitize plans to launch the first totally compliant on-chain inventory buying and selling platform in 2026, the place tokens bought by customers on the blockchain are backed by actual firm inventory, granting them voting rights and dividends.
04. Rising from the Margins: A New Path That Might Take Off in 2026
At the similar time, there are a selection of seemingly peripheral areas value being attentive to. The next content material is referenced from a16z’s newest report, “17 Thrilling Instructions in the Crypto Industry in 2026”.
https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/big-ideas-things-excited-about-crypto-2026/
Picture supply: a16z
1. The id concern of AI brokers
As AI brokers start to take part in transactions, looking, putting orders, and even interacting with good contracts, a key query arises: how do these non-human identities show “who they’re”?
a16z’s “Know Your Agent” (KYA) idea goals to handle this concern. On-chain, any agent initiating a transaction will need to have clear permissions and possession, requiring cryptographically signed credentials. This might change into a prerequisite for large-scale on-chain AI deployment by 2026.
2. x402 protocol and micropayments
a16z predicts that as AI Brokers extensively commerce information, make the most of computing energy, and entry interfaces, we’ll enter an period of “computerized settlement + programmatic cost.”
Guide funds will not be essential; AI Brokers can determine wants and robotically course of funds—that is exactly the real-world downside that protocols like x402 are fixing. Their presence will change into more and more vital by 2026.
3. Privateness chains will obtain extra consideration.
a16z factors out a key development: in comparison with the convergence of efficiency competitors, privateness will change into the core aggressive benefit of future public blockchains. In the previous, individuals nervous that privacy-focused blockchains would hinder regulation and lack transparency. However now the downside is reversed; enterprise information is just too delicate, and with out privateness safety, compliant establishments merely dare not use it. That is exactly why blockchains with built-in privateness safety have gotten more and more engaging. As soon as customers use these blockchains, their information is much less prone to be leaked, and the price of migration is increased, naturally creating new person stickiness—that is basically a community impact.
4. Staked Media
In an period the place AI generates large quantities of content material, judging the reliability of an announcement requires extra than simply taking a look at who stated it; it additionally requires contemplating the prices incurred by the speaker. Due to this fact, a16z proposes a brand new media mannequin the place content material creators not solely communicate out but additionally “pledge” their positions by way of strategies resembling asset lock-up, prediction markets, and NFT tokens.
For instance, in case you put up a bullish opinion on ETH, you concurrently lock up your personal ETH holdings as collateral; in case you make an election prediction, you additionally place your personal wager on the blockchain. This open alignment of pursuits will be sure that content material is extra than simply empty speak. If this strategy proves profitable, it might change into the new norm for on-chain media in the future.
After all, the a16z report outlines excess of simply these instructions. This text focuses on 4 tendencies that we imagine are extra consultant, whereas different instructions are equally noteworthy, resembling: stablecoin deposit and withdrawal upgrades, RWA crypto-native adoption, stablecoin-driven upgrades to financial institution ledger techniques, diversified wealth administration, the rise of AI analysis assistants, AI agent real-time content material income sharing mechanisms, decentralized quantum-resistant communication, “privateness as a service” changing into infrastructure, the DeFi safety paradigm shift, clever prediction markets, verifiable cloud computing, emphasis on product-market match (PMF), and crypto laws unlocking extra potential for blockchain.
readers can discuss with the unique a16z report for additional in-depth understanding.
05. The crypto industry is transferring past its home circulation.
The early progress of the crypto industry was largely constructed on a self-congratulatory system, with token issuance, rebates, and airdrops all making an attempt to draw extra individuals to remain. Nevertheless, this closed loop is regularly being damaged by actuality.
From Polymarket to USDT, and then to the cross-border purposes of USDC, we’re seeing extra and extra people who find themselves not Web3 customers utilizing blockchain instruments. Small distributors on the streets of Lagos might not perceive pockets constructions, however they know that utilizing USDT is far sooner than financial institution transfers. In international locations with excessive inflation, depositors are flocking to USDC, merely for hedging slightly than hypothesis. One among the most evident modifications is showing in cost eventualities in growing international locations, resembling the Philippine alternate Cash.ph partnering with Circle to open a low-cost USDC remittance channel.
This development signifies that encryption know-how is being embedded in real-world eventualities resembling cross-border funds and remittance channels. The true way forward for encryption might lie in use know-how to unravel real-world issues, enabling extra abnormal individuals to unconsciously undertake blockchain know-how.
06. The Crypto Industry from a KOL’s Perspective
The latest dialogue about whether or not spending years in the crypto industry is worth it was basically a collective assessment of the industry.
Citadel Island Ventures companion Nic Carter (@nic_carter) continued his reflection on whether or not eight years of crypto had been wasted, frankly stating that solely Bitcoin, stablecoins, DEXs, and prediction markets have really achieved vital product-market match (PMF) to this point. He chooses to keep up pragmatic idealism, accepting that bubbles and frenzy are a part of the path, not the entire.
Dragonfly companion Haseeb (@hosseeb) put it extra bluntly, declaring that the downside will not be the existence of casinos, however that focusing solely on the glitz and glamour of casinos will trigger us to overlook the actual transformation of the industry. He believes that cryptocurrency is a better automobile for finance and will eternally change the nature of cash. He hopes the industry will stay affected person: “The Industrial Revolution took 50 years to vary productiveness, and we have solely had 15 years.”
XHunt & Biteye founder @DeFiTeddy2020’s abstract can also be extraordinarily sensible. In his view, the crypto industry can shortly expose the true nature of finance, and will face tasks going to zero, costs decoupling from fundamentals, and even insider buying and selling, manipulation, and exploitation. It’s not a breeding floor for idealism, however a market that continually educates contributors with actual cash, and may be very demanding on one’s thoughts.
Relating to the future growth route of the industry, KOL @xincctnnq in the crypto world affords a long-term perspective: crypto is actually making an attempt to unravel long-standing issues resembling the financial system, contract execution, digital property rights, capital market effectivity, and monetary inclusion. Even when the outcomes are distant and the course of is tough, it’s value persevering with to strive.
Moreover, dealer and analyst @CryptoPainter provided a extra market-structure-oriented clarification: the crypto market repeats its constant working mechanism—”worth investing”—”conviction investing”—”emotional hypothesis”—”utter disappointment,” and then it begins once more. This cycle occurred in 2018 and 2022, and it is destined to occur once more. Gamblers and casinos are usually not irregular, however slightly a part of the market’s self-regulation course of, absorbing bubbles.
DougieDeLuca, a member of Figment Capital, provided a perspective that resembled a abstract of a part in the industry. He acknowledged that “Crypto is useless” doesn’t imply that the worth has gone to zero or the blockchain has stopped working, however slightly that “Crypto as a closed industry is dying out.” True success ought to be about integrating Crypto know-how into the day by day lives of abnormal individuals.
From a extra institutional perspective, KOL and researcher @lanhubiji famous that whereas older customers are leaving, newcomers with conventional monetary backgrounds are getting into the market. Of their view, crypto is a long-term development that has already entered a path of standardization, interoperability, and scaling. Three years from now, a very new period of on-chain finance, an on-chain Wall Avenue, will regularly emerge.
Jackyi Yi, founding father of LD Capital, affords a extra cyclical perspective, declaring that the current hunch in crypto is basically on account of a brief convergence of liquidity and macroeconomic occasions. He believes the adverse components are regularly being digested, and with the twin advantages of rate of interest reduce expectations and crypto insurance policies, he stays optimistic about the future market.
At a broader stage of regulation and industry construction, Hashkey Group Chairman Xiao Feng’s evaluation is especially systematic, outlining three main future tendencies:
First, the world development in crypto regulation is shifting from “voluntary acceptance” to “necessary regulation,” with governments regularly eliminating offshore grey areas and crypto buying and selling changing into more and more licensed. For instance, in Hong Kong, beginning in June 2023, all unlicensed buying and selling was required to exit the market.
Second, crypto is not nearly native property like BTC and ETH; extra conventional monetary property are being migrated onto the blockchain by way of tokenization, forming a brand new kind of regulated and compliant securitization market.
Third, transferring from “off-chain” to “on-chain,” he predicts that the second half of 2026 might be the key second for the prototype of “on-chain Wall Avenue” to take form.
07. Conclusion
Will encryption be better in 2026?
Should you’re anticipating a “skyrocketing worth,” the reply may not be so easy.
But when the query is whether or not the industry is transferring in direction of a extra genuine and helpful route, the reply might be sure.
From crypto ETFs to stablecoin funds, from on-chain authorities bonds to prediction markets, from on-chain brokers to decentralized AI, all of those level to 1 factor:
The crypto industry might start to take root in the actual world, and might more and more resemble a twin monetary system working parallel to the real-world monetary system, resonating with the inventory market, macro liquidity, coverage expectations, and even the AI cycle.
