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Government Shutdown Odds Fall On Polymarket, Kalshi After Trump Says Republicans, Democrats ‘Have Come Together’

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January 30, 2026
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Government Shutdown Odds Fall On Polymarket, Kalshi After Trump Says Republicans, Democrats ‘Have Come Together’
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Cryptocurrency punters sharply lowered the chances of the federal authorities shutdown on Saturday after President Donald Trump introduced a bipartisan deal between Republicans and Democrats.

Merchants Shift Shutdown Bets

Polymarket merchants priced in a 59% probability of a authorities shutdown, down from 72% the day earlier than.

Greater than $27 million has been wagered on the end result, making it one of many platform’s most traded bets as of this writing. The market will resolve to “Sure” if the Workplace of Personnel Administration declares a federal authorities shutdown because of a lapse in appropriations by Jan. 31.

Polymarket, based mostly on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), permits customers to wager on an end result utilizing the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin.

Equally, bettors on Kalshi predicted a 59% probability of a shutdown, down from 70.6%

Trump’s Funding Assurance

The drop in odds comes after President Donald Trump stated “he’s working arduous with Congress” to make sure full funding of the federal government till the top of the fiscal yr in September.

“Republicans and Democrats have come collectively to get the overwhelming majority of the federal government funded till September, whereas on the identical time offering an extension to the Division of Homeland Safety,” Trump stated in a Fact Social submit.

He urged lawmakers from each side to again the “bipartisan YES vote.”

What’s At Stake?

Senate Democrats earlier threatened to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security following a deadly capturing in Minneapolis by Border Patrol brokers. This raised the opportunity of a partial authorities shutdown when federal funding expires on Jan. 30.

The longest-ever U.S. government shutdown lasted for 43 days final yr. The shutdown had halted key authorities capabilities and furloughed a whole lot of hundreds of federal staff, sparking a partisan debate over its trigger.

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

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