Bitcoin (BTC) gained as much as 3% Sunday, however some merchants refused to consider that the BTC value crash was over.
Key factors:
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Bitcoin value comparisons warn that new macro lows are due if the 2022 bear market continues to repeat.
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Shifting averages and the associated fee foundation of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are in focus.
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Evaluation says {that a} carbon copy of 2022 isn’t a certainty.
Bitcoin capitulation “hasn’t occurred but”
Knowledge from TradingView confirmed BTC/USD crossing $71,000, now up 20% versus Friday’s 15-month lows.
Because the weekly shut neared, Bitcoin added attribute volatility, whereas market contributors remained extremely skeptical that the rebound would final.
Uploading a chart to X which in contrast present BTC value motion to the 2022 bear market, impartial analyst Filbfilb had no excellent news for bulls.
“Im not going to attempt to costume it up any method apart from the way it seems to be,” he commented alongside a chart displaying spot value versus the 50-week exponential transferring common (EMA) at $95,300.
Analyst Tony Severino held comparable concepts, contributing a number of value indicators and concluding that new lows had been all however assured.
4 extra to your foresight https://t.co/psM23MQiI2 pic.twitter.com/Qu0Pt5QeUz
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) February 8, 2026
“$BTC closing capitulation hasn’t occurred but,” dealer BitBull agreed, like Filbfilb referencing 2022.
“An actual backside will type beneath $50,000 degree the place many of the ETF consumers can be underwater.”
The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) presently have a mean buy-in value of $82,000, per information from monitoring useful resource Checkonchain.
BTC value deja vu continues
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a key bear market characteristic for Bitcoin based mostly on two different pattern traces: the 200-week easy (SMA) and exponential transferring averages.
Associated: What crashed Bitcoin? Three theories behind BTC’s trip below $60K
Collectively, they type a “cloud” of help between $58,000 and $68,000.
In one in every of his latest market takes on the weekend, Caleb Franzen, creator of analytics useful resource Cubic Analytics, argued that right here too, the ghost of 2022 was in play.
“In Could 2022, Bitcoin retested its 200-week MA cloud. Bulls mentioned ‘that is it, we have retested the long-term transferring common & can proceed larger now.’ Price instantly rebounded on that zone, produced a protracted wick, & closed above the midpoint of the weekly vary,” he summarized.
“However then that rally pale… Price got here again into the 200W MA cloud a number of weeks later, did not rebound, then sliced by way of the cloud in June 2022. What are we seeing proper now? The primary retest of the 200W MA cloud with a protracted wick.”
Franzen be aware that the market might not replicate the earlier bear market “completely.”
“The truth is that nobody is aware of what occurs subsequent,” he acknowledged.
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