On this episode of WuBlockchain AMA, we unpack key takeaways from Hong Kong Consensus and talk about the place the crypto business stands today-and the place it is likely to be headed. Visitors included Colin Wu (Chief Editor of WuBlockchain), DeFi Teddy (Founding father of XHunt), Leon Liu (CEO & CTO of Hubble AI), Esther (Head of Conflux Hong Kong Ecosystem), Web3 researcher Haotian, macro hedge fund PM Albert Luxon, in addition to well-known KOLs Cindy Wang, Nanachan, and Kirara.
The panel shared their candid views on the present state of crypto and their impressions from the convention. With markets sluggish and AI quickly gaining momentum, sentiment throughout the business has clearly shifted. Many contributors expressed rising pessimism about crypto’s near-term outlook. The so-called “consensus” appears to have modified, as conventional crypto narratives and initiatives are dealing with mounting stress.
That mentioned, not everybody agreed that “crypto is completed.” A number of audio system argued that whereas speculation-driven cycles could also be fading, actual alternatives remain-especially in funds, compliance, stablecoins, and institutional infrastructure. The intersection of AI and Web3 was broadly seen as a key frontier, with decentralized programs and the rising AI-driven economic system probably opening up a brand new chapter for the business.
Past the big-picture debate, visitors additionally shared some entertaining and even absurd moments from the occasion. General, regardless of a troublesome market and shaken confidence, many in the area are nonetheless trying to find the subsequent direction-and haven’t given up on crypto simply but.
The audio transcription is finished by GPT and should include errors.
Half 1: Impressions from Hong Kong Consensus
Colin: Sturdy Authorities Backing, However Few Real Business Catalysts
Colin: First, the vibe felt quiet. I joked on Twitter that it was the first crypto occasion the place you had to purchase your personal drinks. That says one thing about the environment.
Second, the Hong Kong authorities clearly took the occasion very critically. Senior officers confirmed up and even introduced new insurance policies. At the official stage, assist was robust.
However on the business facet, there weren’t many actual catalysts. Globally, prediction markets and tokenized equities are sizzling, however each face regulatory challenges in Hong Kong, so there wasn’t a lot concrete progress mentioned.
RWA was talked about, particularly given new mainland insurance policies, however since the occasion was largely overseas-driven, dialogue round mainland and Hong Kong developments was restricted.
Haotian: From Fragmentation to Collective Pessimism
Haotian: At the final Consensus, everybody was pushing their very own narrative-DeFi, RWA, AI, neighborhood. No shared route, no actual consensus.
This time, mockingly, there’s a consensus: “crypto is completed.” The dominant temper is unified pessimism. That’s not essentially my private view, nevertheless it’s the environment I felt.
I anticipated this event-being extra internationally driven-to really feel extra optimistic than Asia-heavy conferences earlier in the yr. However that wasn’t the case. Chinese language initiatives and KOLs had been largely bearish. Abroad groups weren’t a lot better-many appeared indifferent, nearly numb, simply constructing in isolation with out urgency.
To me, that’s worse than open frustration. At the very least criticism pushes change. Indifference doesn’t.
Personally, I got here centered on AI, making an attempt to keep away from the detrimental temper. That helped. General, I’m disappointed-but nonetheless hoping new instructions can emerge from this reset.
Cindy: A Non-public Membership Vibe-Bullish’s CEO and Solar Yuchen’s Banana Second
Cindy: This yr’s Consensus felt surreal-in each good and absurd methods.
It was mainly a room stuffed with top-tier insiders, nearly no retail. You by no means knew who was sitting subsequent to you. At one session, I requested the man beside me what hand cream he was using-it smelled nice. Thirty minutes later, he went on stage. Seems he was Tom Farley, CEO of Bullish and an investor in CoinDesk.
I additionally randomly bumped into the CEO of Securitize. Simply the day earlier than, BlackRock introduced it had purchased UNI, with Securitize dealing with compliance. So sure, plenty of heavyweight gamers.
Essentially the most absurd second? At a celebration, Justin Solar mentioned he’d ship everybody dessert. Large field. We opened it-just one banana inside. A nod to the well-known taped-banana NFT he purchased. Completely weird, however very on-brand.
Teddy: Quiet Foremost Stage, Institutional Shift, and AI as the New Gravity
Teddy: This yr felt very totally different from previous Consensus occasions. I normally spend at least half a day at the important stage. This time, I stayed perhaps an hour.
Most initiatives there have been institutional or compliance-focused-not the type of crypto-native groups we’re used to. Laborious to seek out frequent floor. I solely had a quick chat with Alibaba Cloud. Facet occasions had been truly extra productive.
My greatest takeaway: the institutional period is right here. Establishments are coming in, retail is fading out. With huge capital comes compliance, licenses, regulation-none of that are retail-friendly. This seems like a turning level.
Is crypto completed? No. Decentralization nonetheless issues. The demand remains to be there.
However AI is pulling consideration, capital, and builders away from crypto. The true “consensus” now isn’t that crypto is dead-it’s that folks have to pivot to AI.
There are two paths: absolutely go away crypto for pure AI, or mix AI with Web3-AI brokers, AI instruments for progress, buying and selling, operations, and so on.
If I needed to sum it up: institutionalization, AI pivot, and low sentiment. That’s the temper.
Nana: Chinese language Rooms Discuss Costs, English Rooms Keep Chill-AI Is Now Commonplace
Nana: I attended each Chinese language-speaking and English-speaking gatherings.
In the Chinese language rooms-mostly exchange-related-the focus was nearly totally on value. Each occasion, individuals requested: “Is this a great time to purchase the dip?” “What cash are value investing in?” Sentiment was extremely reactive to market strikes.
In the English-speaking occasions, largely founders and KOLs from Dubai and Europe, nobody talked about value. Conversations had been casual-ideas, life, long-term views. They appeared much less emotionally tied to short-term volatility.
I feel a part of it’s exposure-many in the Chinese language neighborhood maintain bigger positions, so value swings hit tougher.
Development-wise, I agree with Teddy. Even in a weak market, there are nonetheless many initiatives building-but they’re concentrated in just a few areas.
The most important one is AI. Virtually each challenge now provides an AI angle-whether it’s funds, RWA, or one thing else. AI has change into a default narrative.
I’ve additionally seen Web3 founders pivot totally to AI, seemingly as a result of capital is flowing there.
That mentioned, founders must be clear about their strengths. AI and Web3 function underneath very totally different funding and enterprise logics. Blindly pivoting isn’t at all times the proper transfer.
Esther: Prediction Markets, Stablecoins, and the Battle for Chinese language Liquidity
Esther: Simply my private view.
I used to be busy internet hosting occasions, so I didn’t attend much-but just a few traits stood out.
First, prediction markets are in all places. Dozens, perhaps a whole bunch of groups. Not simply crypto natives-licensed brokers and even casino-backed teams are getting into. They see it as the subsequent on-chain “on line casino” with actual visitors potential.
Second, many Chinese language groups are launching stablecoins-not simply USD, however non-USD variations too. Even application-layer groups, like livestreaming platforms, wish to challenge their very own stablecoins to manage settlement and liquidity as a substitute of counting on others.
Third, market makers are again and actively sourcing offers, seemingly attributable to tighter liquidity and efficiency stress.
The occasion was extremely worldwide. At the similar time, main Western exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken are clearly concentrating on the Chinese language market. They see robust buying and selling exercise and capital there-and with merchandise like tokenized equities, they imagine they’ve an edge.
Backside line: world competitors for Chinese language liquidity is heating up.
Albert: Fewer Buying and selling Groups, TradFi Taking Over, Liquidity Dangers Rising
Albert: From a secondary market and fund perspective, this yr’s Consensus felt a lot weaker than final year-smaller scale, no new faces. Largely the similar infra, compliance, and repair suppliers. Little or no contemporary blood.
At institutional-only facet occasions, buying and selling groups had been down roughly a 3rd. Many arbitrage and funding-rate desks had been worn out after final October. But 85% of groups are nonetheless working the standard methods. Real skill-based strategies-market making, long-short, volatility-are uncommon, and new entrants are nearly nonexistent.
Institutional focus has shifted to funds and RWA, however each have gotten license-driven companies. Sturdy compliance and conventional monetary credibility now matter greater than crypto-native expertise. TradFi gamers are clearly transferring in to take management.
Capability can also be limited-most methods can’t take up massive capital anymore. LPs now demand cross-market functionality: crypto plus equities, commodities, and extra.
Even institutional facet occasions felt weak-few actual buying and selling groups, extra service suppliers. And through the convention, information broke {that a} main establishment halted withdrawals. In a bear market, that type of shock reignites systemic threat fears.
Backside line: the market is transitioning towards conventional monetary dominance. For adaptable groups, it’s a possibility. For others, it may imply getting worn out.
Kirara: From “Searching Initiatives” to “Searching Meals”-KOLs Pivot to AI
Kirara: The most important shift this yr? Folks aren’t in search of initiatives anymore-they’re in search of meals.
In previous years, as a KOL, I’d meet companies and founders, trying to find the subsequent huge narrative. This time, nobody’s speaking about new cash, airdrops, or making a living. With BTC down, value discuss has light.
Now the query is: “What are you constructing?” Lots of people are studying vibe coding and experimenting with AI instruments. In a bear market, everybody abruptly turns into a product builder. AI facet initiatives, small apps-that’s the new focus.
The temper feels indifferent. Nobody cares about 10x cash or BTC hitting new highs. Even political rants have cooled off.
At occasions, exchanges had been nonetheless the most crowded and extravagant-Binance, BitMart. They clearly have the funds. Challenge-hosted facet occasions had been fewer, although one stood out-multiple groups internet hosting a banquet-style occasion that felt extra like a marriage.
Half 2: Is Crypto Actually “Completed”? The place Are the Alternatives?
Kirara: Outdated Narratives Fading, AI Changing into Infrastructure
Kirara: I wouldn’t say crypto is completed. The business isn’t dead-but some previous narratives positively are.
Bitcoin’s story has developed. First it was privateness and censorship resistance. Then it turned “digital gold.” Now, the power that when drove explosive progress feels weaker. The previous drivers of hype are fading.
The identical goes for initiatives. Some groups have been constructing for years with out TGE or breakout traction. However crypto strikes fast-like a expertise present. A story window could final solely three or 4 months. In case you don’t “debut” throughout that cycle, it’s exhausting to come back again.
We’ve already seen sizzling narratives from months in the past disappear from conversations at this yr’s Consensus. Miss the timing, and it’s over.
AI can also be shifting. Final yr, AI was a promoting point-AI buying and selling bots, AI companions, and so on. This yr, AI isn’t a characteristic; it’s infrastructure. In case your challenge doesn’t combine AI, that’s what feels unusual. AI has gone from a label to a baseline.
So crypto isn’t dead-but the playbook has modified. In case you’re nonetheless caught in previous narratives, then sure, that model of crypto is over.
Albert: Not Useless-Simply Maturing. Crypto Is Changing into Monetary Infrastructure
Albert: I wouldn’t name it “completed.” I’d name it maturing.
Since 2024, the crypto panorama has been consolidating. The market now is aware of which sectors generate steady money stream and which don’t. At Consensus, nearly the whole lot revolved round 4 areas: funds, buying and selling, compliance, and threat management.
That tells you one thing. Crypto is not seen as a limitless innovation lab-it’s changing into monetary infrastructure. Innovation is narrowing, specializing in sensible monetary features.
That’s why funds and RWA dominated. And why the future seems more and more like a license-driven business-whoever has compliance and credibility wins.
Some sectors, although, could genuinely shrink-like crypto-native token listings. Many critical initiatives now desire IPOs over token listings. In the event that they develop sufficiently big, they’d reasonably checklist on Nasdaq or HKEX than on a crypto trade.
Conventional exchanges and establishments are pushing tokenization. If you will get the backing of main banks and go public, you acquire higher valuation, liquidity, and long-term capital than by a pure crypto itemizing.
This shift modifications notion: public-market listings sign high quality; crypto-only listings begin to look dangerous. Even Korean retail merchants are transferring towards U.S.-listed crypto shares as a substitute of trade tokens.
Because of this, crypto exchanges could shift roles-from profit-heavy itemizing platforms to secondary service suppliers centered on custody, fiat rails, and costs. Coinbase leans on ETF custody; Kraken on fiat and FX channels. Their long-term positioning will rely upon these strengths.
So crypto isn’t dead-it’s stabilizing. However maturity means decrease extra returns, tighter innovation, and stronger conventional finance affect. The champagne-and-Lamborghini period? In all probability over.
Cindy: The Pure “Crypto Period” Is Over-Integration With TradFi Has Begun
Cindy: Is crypto completed? Half sure.
The standalone “crypto-only period” is clearly over. Simply look at exchanges-Binance, Bitget are pushing tokenized U.S. equities. Matrixport not too long ago enabled stablecoin deposits to purchase U.S. shares.
They see actual consumer information. When BTC approached $120K, whales had been already rotating into U.S. AI shares. If exchanges don’t improve, high-net-worth customers go away. It’s not about sustaining just a few VIP relationships.
However at the similar time, the fusion of crypto and conventional finance is accelerating.
Stablecoins are the clearest instance. Conventional cost gamers used to revenue from charges and FX spreads. Now stablecoins supply quicker, cheaper, extra clear settlement. Purchasers are pushing cost companies to combine them.
There’s actual crossover demand-exchanges, asset managers, wallets, OTC desks are all trying at cost integration. Everybody’s underneath KPI stress and trying to find progress.
Who’s doing properly?
First, groups that seize native coverage tailwinds-especially these transferring shortly underneath Hong Kong’s regulatory framework.
Second, HK-listed firms that pivot into crypto narratives whereas retaining conventional market credibility.
So yes-the pure “crypto bubble” section is fading. However deep integration between crypto and conventional finance is simply getting began.
Esther: Coverage Tailwinds, U.S. Backing-and the Real Danger Is a “Psychological Bear Market”
Esther: The initiatives doing properly are these driving coverage momentum. Hong Kong’s new tokenization guidelines create a transparent, compliant framework. For groups that stayed on the regulatory path, this can be a actual alternative.
Who’s at risk? These caught in previous playbooks. Quant groups that don’t improve methods will get worn out once more. Initiatives and companies nonetheless utilizing final cycle’s ways gained’t survive. Chasing hype after the window closes doesn’t work anymore.
Three teams are nonetheless robust:
First, companies with actual income and clear models-especially cost and enterprise-facing providers. Apparently, many don’t even need the “Web3” label anymore as a result of it hurts valuation.
Second, “American-native” initiatives with robust political and capital backing-like LayerZero, supported by main Wall Road gamers. They’ve affect and pricing energy.
Third, conventional brokers. For them, crypto is simply one other product line-higher margins, new income. Many are upgrading licenses and actively promoting crypto.
My ultimate level: the actual hazard isn’t a value bear market-it’s a mindset bear market. When OGs change into numb or resistant to alter, that’s when the business actually dangers decline.
Nana: Weak Initiatives Cleared Out, Establishments Maintain the Chips
Nana: I agree with Esther. From a founder’s view, the low-quality, hype-driven initiatives are being flushed out. In the previous, a robust VC brand was sufficient to launch a token-even and not using a actual product.
That not works. Liquidity is tight, VCs are cautious, and with out actual traction or money stream, initiatives battle to outlive. I truly assume that is healthy-survival of the fittest improves total high quality.
From an investor’s view, although, it’s harder for retail. Establishments now maintain most of the chips in main property, giving them stronger management over market strikes. Retail alternatives are shrinking.
Some retail merchants flip to meme cash, however after final yr’s volatility and repeated FUD cycles, enthusiasm has cooled.
So yes-fewer straightforward positive aspects for retail, extra institutional dominance. Brief-term upside is proscribed, however the business could change into extra sustainable in the future.
Haotian: Sentiment Is Damaged-However Agentic Financial system Might Be the Subsequent Consensus
Haotian: Let’s be honest-sentiment is damaged. Holders, founders, VCs-everyone’s exhausted. Outdated narratives and previous playbooks not work.
Retail nonetheless desires of 10x or 100x positive aspects, however that mindset has solely led to losses this cycle. Valuations are compressed. AI seems extra attractive-easier funding, clearer progress. Even shopping for U.S. AI shares could really feel safer than holding altcoins.
Why? Oversupply. Token launches have change into industrialized. Meme cycles shrink from months to days, even minutes. TGE has change into a manufacturing unit course of. The period of “simply maintain and get wealthy” is over. Consensus has fractured.
OGs both made sufficient and left, or just can’t relate to the new recreation. Exchanges are additionally shifting-tokenized shares, AI methods, fragmented liquidity. The previous on-chain flywheel is gone.
Some initiatives like Hyperliquid broke out, however they’re uncommon. Tech narratives like ZK or BTC L2 have light. It seems like a whole era of tales is receding.
However is there a brand new route? I imagine in Agentic Financial system.
AI consensus is forming. Consider stablecoins as worth rails, prediction markets as data pricing, AI buying and selling as execution, robotics as bodily AI. Join them, and also you get an AI-driven financial framework spanning Web2 and Web3.
Subsequent cycle gained’t be pure hypothesis. However round Agentic Financial system, new significant narratives can emerge.
So yes-sentiment is lifeless. Outdated consensus is collapsing. However a brand new AI + crypto consensus could also be taking form.
Teddy: The Real Disaster Is Lack of Innovation-Agentic Financial system as the Manner Ahead
Teddy: Earlier than asking whether or not crypto is completed, we must always ask: what’s its core?
It’s decentralization-both the know-how and the ethos. That gained’t disappear.
The true challenge is notion. Many now really feel crypto lacks utility. Too many low-value property, fading conviction, builders and capital leaving.
The basis trigger? No breakthrough innovation lately.
Bitcoin launched decentralized cash. Ethereum introduced sensible contracts. DeFi created actual on-chain monetary primitives. Every wave reshaped the business.
This cycle hasn’t produced an equal breakthrough. As a substitute, initiatives chase listings, cease constructing after TGE, and tokens peak on day one. When property lack long-term worth, confidence collapses. Builders and VCs exit, provide shrinks-this is the actual disaster.
So what’s subsequent?
Prediction markets have potential however lack transformative affect. AI, nevertheless, does.
AI coding instruments can flip concepts into merchandise in minutes. Massive language fashions now execute duties, not simply analyze them. That’s a productiveness leap.
For this reason Agentic Financial system makes sense-AI brokers dealing with execution, stablecoins as worth rails, on-chain programs as coordination layers. Crypto should align with this route to regain relevance.
One other long-term path is decentralized AI. At present’s AI is centralized and opaque. A clear, verifiable, community-owned AI community aligns deeply with crypto’s authentic imaginative and prescient. It’s early, however conceptually highly effective.
Backside line: crypto isn’t lifeless. However with out actual innovation, perception fades. The subsequent significant consensus seemingly emerges at the intersection of Agentic Financial system and decentralized AI.
Leon: International however Quiet-AI Buying and selling and Prediction Markets as the Subsequent Themes
Leon: As an exhibitor, my view is a bit totally different. The occasion was clearly international-roughly half abroad attendees. If this had been a bull market, it may’ve been a robust bridge between Asia and world gamers.
However total, it felt chilly. Few standout crypto-native projects-mostly exchanges and repair suppliers. Though prediction markets are sizzling, we had been nearly the solely workforce centered on them. AI initiatives had been additionally restricted. The meme hackathon sponsor was almost empty-clear signal the meme cycle is over.
This bear market feels heavier than 2022. Again then, even in downturns, we had SocialFi, GameFi, inscriptions-new narratives stored rising. This cycle hasn’t produced that.
Nonetheless, I see three alternatives:
First, derivatives-both CEX and DEX perps. In bear markets, volatility stays. Buying and selling massive caps with leverage is extra viable than chasing short-lived memes. Tokenized shares, commodities, and FX on-chain are additionally rising, providing retail instruments they couldn’t entry earlier than.
Second, AI. From protocol-level requirements to AI brokers and buying and selling automation, momentum is powerful. The important thing query is how AI integrates with crypto. If AI can reshape Hollywood, it could reshape buying and selling too.
Third, prediction markets. Nonetheless early, however not simply crypto-native-institutions are watching. As an on-chain utility, crypto insiders have a bonus.
Bearish temper apart, these areas may outline the subsequent cycle.
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