Sui surged 49% this month versus Solana’s 8% acquire, however Solana’s $63 billion market cap nonetheless dwarfs Sui’s $4 billion by roughly 15 occasions.
Sui faces mounting provide stress with solely 41% of its 10 billion cash circulating, and must hit $15 simply to match Solana’s present market worth.
Solana’s Alpenglow improve launches October 21, slashing transaction finality to 150 milliseconds and giving Solana a technical catalyst Sui at the moment lacks.
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Sui (CRYPTO:SUI) has risen 49.2% over the previous month, whereas Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) has risen solely 7.9%. This places Sui considerably forward in the Sui vs. Solana comparability for the month. Like Solana, Sui operates as a layer-1 blockchain, serving as a base community for purposes and utilizing its personal coin for transaction charges.
Sui trades at round $1.05, up 6.2% in the final 24 hours however down 1.8% over the week. In distinction, Solana’s value is about $106. All through October, Sui’s value has fluctuated between roughly $0.99 and $1.26.
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Each cryptocurrencies are buying and selling properly beneath their January 2025 highs. Sui is 80.4% beneath its peak of $5.35, whereas Solana sits 63.7% beneath its report of $293. This raises the query. Can Sui maintain outperforming Solana, or will this latest rise be short-lived?
Solana Is Nonetheless Value About 15 Occasions Extra Than Sui
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To match these two cryptocurrencies pretty, we are able to have a look at their market values, which mirror every community’s whole value. Sui’s market worth is round $4.3 billion, rating it twenty eighth, whereas Solana boasts about $62.7 billion, putting it seventh—roughly 14.6 occasions Sui’s.
One problem for Sui is its provide. Presently, about 4.1 billion Sui cash are circulating out of a complete most provide of 10 billion, that means solely 41% of the whole is in circulation.
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If all 10 billion cash have been obtainable at the present value, Sui’s market worth can be about $10.5 billion, referred to as the “absolutely diluted worth.” Compared, Solana has round 93% of its worth already circulating, so it faces much less stress from extra provide.
This dilution can have a big affect. If Sui returns to its earlier excessive of $5.35 with the present provide, its market worth can be round $22 billion. If all cash have been in circulation, that very same value would imply a market worth of $53.5 billion. To match Solana’s present market worth with the present provide, Sui would want to achieve about $15.
Curiously, no single main occasion has pushed Sui’s value enhance. As of October 15, Sui’s builders hadn’t introduced any main information, suggesting its 30-day surge is not pushed by a selected catalyst.
Our October 11 evaluation famous that the rise coincided with a brand new system referred to as Hashi, which lets establishments borrow in opposition to Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), though Hashi has not shared any utilization statistics. This enhance additionally appears associated to merchants shifting their focus to smaller cash with extra risky value actions.
Nevertheless, Sui’s upward pattern has proven indicators of cooling off. Beginning the 30-day window close to $0.69, it peaked at about $1.29 in September, however has dropped 12.9% over the previous two weeks and is down 27.1% to this point this yr.
Solana’s Alpenglow Improve Goes Stay October 21
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On October 13, Anza, a core Solana developer, introduced that the Alpenglow improve will go reside on October 21. This improve goals to enhance the community by changing validator voting with certificates, considerably lowering transaction finality—the level at which a transaction can’t be reversed—to round 150 milliseconds.
Previous upgrades on different blockchains provide precious insights into how such occasions can have an effect on costs. For instance, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) noticed value drops in the 30 days after its 2022 Merge and its 2024 Dencun improve. In distinction, after the Pectra improve in 2025, Ethereum’s value elevated as patrons did not rush in forward of the improve.
Solana’s state of affairs seems extra much like the setup earlier than Pectra. In response to SoSoValue, Solana’s exchange-traded merchandise skilled internet outflows on eight of the first 9 buying and selling days in October, and Solana fell 9% in the week earlier than the announcement.
Can Sui Keep Outpacing Solana?
While Sui might proceed to point out stronger proportion development than Solana for a couple of extra weeks, closing the market worth hole by December appears unlikely. Smaller cash have a tendency to maneuver extra dramatically with much less funding, which explains Sui’s benefit, however Solana’s important market measurement and Sui’s rising provide make a sustained catch-up difficult. For Sui, the speedy purpose is to keep up its value above $1 and ultimately surpass its September excessive of roughly $1.29.
If Sui falls beneath its October low of about $0.99, it might sign a reversal in curiosity towards smaller cryptocurrencies. For Solana, the key can be whether or not the Alpenglow improve rolls out efficiently on October 21 and pushes the value above $107 the following month, ideally with fund inflows returning. If Alpenglow succeeds whereas Sui dips beneath $0.99, the Sui vs. Solana dynamic may favor Solana once more by the finish of 2026.
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