Harris presidential lead to blame for weak Bitcoin price, Bernstein says

Since August 2, Kamala Harris’ odds of successful the election have risen 238%.
Analysts warn {that a} Donald Trump loss will likely be dangerous for crypto costs.

Simply as Kamala Harris takes the lead over Donald Trump in varied polls, together with on crypto-powered betting platform Polymarket, the value of Bitcoin has weakened.

Bernstein analysts don’t assume it’s a coincidence.

“Our interpretation of present market sentiment is {that a} Trump win is bullish, and Harris win is bearish (at the least by way of the speedy market response),” learn a brand new report.

Because the present US vp was nominated to run on August 4, Bitcoin has misplaced 3%.

Over that interval, the biggest cryptocurrency additionally fell beneath $50,000 throughout a swift market crash spurred on by the unwinding of the so-called yen carry trade.

It’s but to return to its all-time excessive of $73,700 in March.

“The rising shares of Harris on Polymarkets has made the crypto markets nervous, with Bitcoin being vary sure and unable to reclaim its earlier June highs of” roughly $70,000, write Bernstein analysts.

The crypto election

This 12 months’s presidential election is the primary time crypto has change into a key speaking level in a serious vote.

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Trump’s pro-Bitcoin messaging on the marketing campaign path — hinting at a nationwide Bitcoin treasury, courting miners, and even promising to fireplace SEC Chair Gary Gensler if he wins — has paid off.

Crypto heavyweights like Messari co-founder Ryan Selkis have come out swinging for him.

Throughout a keynote speech on the 2024 Bitcoin Convention, Trump stated his marketing campaign had raised roughly $25 million from the crypto neighborhood.

Whereas Harris has not taken a public stance on crypto, her marketing campaign just lately added two key advisers who previously labored within the trade.

David Plouffe, additionally an advisor to former President Barack Obama, was on crypto change Binance’s world advisory board.

Brian Nelson labored on the Treasury Division’s Workplace for Terrorism and Monetary Intelligence.

Throughout his time there, the Treasury Division introduced enforcement actions towards Binance for breaking sanctions and anti-money laundering legal guidelines.

Members of the crypto neighborhood — together with Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci — are additionally rallying behind her.

The group referred to as Crypto4Harris says it’s “organising to again Harris whereas pushing for a nuanced coverage stance that positions America as a frontrunner in digital belongings.”

It should host a digital city corridor on August 16.