With this yr’s rising reputation of presidential election prediction markets, not solely can pollsters predict the result of the election, however odd buyers can too. Robinhood, the most recent platform to make its foray into election betting, has raked in over 100 million bets after introducing contracts final week, in line with the corporate’s CEO.
“100 million contracts have been traded in lower than per week on @robinhoodapp’s Presidential Election Market,” Robinhood CEO and co-founder Vlad Tenev posted on X on Sunday.
On the Robinhood app, customers can watch in real-time as bets are positioned and the chance of both candidate’s victory adjusts accordingly. In the intervening time, former President Donald Trump leads with 55% whereas Vice President Kamala Harris is polling at 46%.
Robinhood’s betting website seems like this:
Robinhood, which lets customers commerce all kinds of shares and crypto belongings, introduced U.S. election betting on its cellular app final week. The presidential election contracts are the primary occasion contracts to be supplied on its prediction market. To be able to place bets, customers have to satisfy sure standards together with being a U.S. citizen and having been accepted for a Robinhood Derivatives account.
Robinhood’s rollout got here after a courtroom in September sided with prediction market Kalshi, which had sued the CFTC to problem an extended standing prohibition on election betting. The ruling opened the door to those contracts within the U.S., main Kalshi to launch bets on the Presidential race quickly after. The new providing attracted $30 million in bets in its first three weeks.
The CTFC is interesting the choice which might halt betting, however not till after the 2024 election.
Kalshi and Robinhood are usually not the one prediction markets that provide election betting. Polymarket, a platform that provides contracts in cryptocurrency, and PredictIt have common contracts too.
Whereas Polymarket can not function in the US, its U.S. election prediction market has amassed nearly $3 billion value of quantity and had Trump polling round 58% on Monday. Nevertheless, current proof suggests a big portion of buying and selling on the platform is fake.
Prediction markets work like this: If Trump has a 55% likelihood of successful on Robinhood, contracts in favor of Trump will go for $0.55 and customers should purchase a number of contracts to extend their winnings – or losses. If Trump wins you then obtain $1 for every contract and if he loses you obtain $0 for every contract.
You will need to observe the timeline when buying election contracts on Robinhood. Whereas the election is scheduled for November fifth, the result of the contracts won’t be decided till January seventh and customers won’t obtain a payout till January eighth.
