XRP (XRP) has bounced practically 30% after a four-month low of $1.61 amid rising tariff tensions. Nonetheless, the rebound could also be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain indicators now level to a deeper correction forward.
XRP cup-and-handle sample hints at 40% drop
XRP is forming a basic bearish reversal sample that would see its value falling by at the least 40% within the coming weeks.
Dubbed inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H), the sample types when the worth rounds off in a curved descent (cup) adopted by a temporary consolidation part (deal with) — all atop a frequent neckline assist degree.
The sample is confirmed by a breakdown stage, the place the worth breaks decisively beneath assist and falls by as a lot because the sample’s most peak.
As of April 19, XRP had entered the sample’s handle-formation part, eyeing a decisive shut beneath the neckline assist at round $2. On this case, the first draw back goal will seemingly be round $1.24, nearly 40% beneath present costs.
The IC&H goal aligns with XRP’s 200-3D exponential transferring common (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) at round $1.28 — and additional coincides with a November 2024 high.
Moreover, veteran dealer Peter Brandt means that XRP’s market cap may drop by 50% within the coming weeks.
XRP onchain fractal hints at 50% correction
XRP’s inverse cup-and-handle sample is unfolding consistent with its historic value habits, signaling that its 2025 rally could have topped out.
As an illustration, the cryptocurrency noticed sharp pullbacks to its aggregated realized price following main surges in earlier cycles, most notably in 2018 and 2021.
For merchants, the realized value serves as a psychological benchmark, representing the typical value at which the XRP provide was final moved.
When the market value trades nicely above this degree, most holders are in revenue, which might encourage complacency or profit-taking. Conversely, if the worth nears the realized value, concern of losses tends to rise, and promoting strain can intensify.
In 2025, XRP surged previous $3.20 earlier than dropping steam, repeating patterns seen in previous bull-to-bear cycles. The present realized value at round $1, a seemingly draw back goal in 2025 down about 50% from the present costs.
Curiously, XRP’s $1 realized value goal is nearer to its 200-week EMA (the blue wave within the chart beneath) at $0.81, a bear market goal mentioned in Cointelegraph’s analysis in late March.
Including to the bearish outlook, over 80% of XRP addresses are at the moment in revenue. The metric traditionally reached related ranges throughout earlier market tops, typically previous vital rounds of profit-taking and pullbacks.
Associated: 81.6% of XRP supply is in profit, but traders in Korea are turning bearish — Here is why
If historical past repeats, such related situations may incentivize merchants to exit positions, accelerating XRP’s retracement towards the realized value.
Odds of XRP hitting report highs are declining
Sentiment round XRP reaching a new all-time excessive above the $3.55 degree is deteriorating, in accordance to prediction market knowledge from Polymarket.
As of April 19, the chances of XRP reaching this milestone earlier than 2026 have dropped to simply 35%, marking a sharp 25% decline from peak confidence ranges in March, as proven beneath.
The upside momentum within the crypto market has pale general in April, coinciding with a broader decline in danger urge for food pushed by escalating world tariff tensions below Donald Trump’s commerce insurance policies.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a determination.
