This cycle has held remarkably constant, turning into an investor’s “market clock.” But the present cycle might not match neatly into this template.
I. Are We at the Finish of the Bull Market? The Previous Four-Year Cycle
Wanting again at Bitcoin’s value historical past, there appears to be an “iron legislation” of four-year cycles:
- December 2013: bull market peak;
- December 2017: bull market peak;
- November 2021: bull market peak.
This cycle has held remarkably constant, turning into an investor’s “market clock.” But the present cycle might not match neatly into this template. Whereas Bitcoin has certainly surged from its backside, whether or not this marks the starting of one other bull market prime stays removed from sure.
II. Institutional Capital: Breaking Away from Retail-Pushed Cycles
Earlier cycles have been dominated by retail investor sentiment, characterised by excessive volatility. The present cycle, nevertheless, is basically completely different, with institutional capital reshaping the construction of the market:
- ETF flows redefining liquidity: The approval of spot ETFs has made capital entry extra handy and clear. Institutional buying and selling habits tends to be extra rational, with smoother profit-taking and much less panic-driven volatility.
- Rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): Establishments like BlackRock and others now maintain a mixed $15.8 billion throughout Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, accounting for 10% of BTC ETF market cap. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $12.45 billion in Q2, representing almost 97% of web inflows.
The shift indicators a change from “retail sentiment-driven” markets to “institutional capital flow-driven” cycles.
III. 401(ok) Pensions: Opening the Automated Capital Pipeline
On August 7, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an govt order directing the Division of Labor to revise guidelines to permit cryptocurrency investments inside 401(ok) pension plans.
- Large capital pool: 401(ok) plans signify $8.7 trillion in belongings. If even 5% flows into crypto, that would inject up to $400 billion.
- Influence comparable to ETFs: If spot ETFs opened the door for institutional cash, 401(ok)s signify an “automated pipeline,” channeling regular, long-term capital into crypto markets.
- Coverage sign: If self-directed pensions can entry crypto, might even bigger government-managed pension funds finally comply with?
This transfer might set off structural change in crypto markets, probably breaking the four-year cycle “future.”
IV. The Rise of RWA: Actual-World Property on the Blockchain
Past ETFs and pensions, Actual-World Property (RWA) are rising as a key narrative in 2025:
- Market trajectory:
- 2017: RWA idea emerged, specializing in actual property and artwork.
- 2021: DeFi protocols (e.g., MakerDAO) built-in RWAs for collateralized lending.
- 2023: RWA market measurement surpassed $5 billion; Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton launched tokenized merchandise.
- 2025: BlackRock and Goldman Sachs speed up large-scale RWA deployments.
- Future projections:
- BCG: $16 trillion tokenized asset market by 2030.
- Citi: $4–5 trillion vary.
- 21.co: $3.5–10 trillion.
By reducing entry boundaries and enhancing liquidity, RWA tokenization can funnel long-term capital into crypto and assist real-economy financing.
V. Hong Kong’s RWA Regulation and Apply
Hong Kong has taken a regulatory lead in Asia:
- 2019: SFC declared most STOs seemingly fall beneath securities legislation.
- 2023: SFC issued steering for intermediaries, constructing a dual-track framework of “monetary asset first, know-how second.”
Key options:
- Mature authorized basis: RWAs with securities attributes already regulated beneath the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
- Progressive openness: Leisure of restrictions past skilled buyers.
- Sensible focus: Emphasis on tokenized inexperienced power and infrastructure financing.
Hong Kong is well-positioned to turn out to be Asia’s RWA and Web3 testing floor.
In June 2025, Hong Kong-listed firm MemeStrategy bought 2,440 SOL tokens (price roughly HK$2.9 million), turning into the first Hong Kong-listed agency to take a place in Solana — a transfer that underscores the rising recognition of Web3 belongings amongst conventional Asian monetary establishments.
Earlier, Hong Kong’s capital markets had already begun exploring the Web3 sector. In March 2023, COOL LINK (08491.HK) introduced the acquisition of a 4.54% stake in Blissful Hyperlink, the developer behind the Web3 gaming mission Capverse, for HK$17.8 million. The next month, Roma Meta Group (08072.HK) additionally invested, buying a 0.32% stake in the identical firm.
Capverse, a Hong Kong-based Web3 gaming model, is reshaping blockchain gaming by shifting from “Play-to-Earn” to “Play-and-Earn.”
- Product: NFT-based technique recreation on BNB Chain, with 15,000+ lively customers.
- Gameplay: PVE adventures, PVP battles, strategy-rich pet cultivation, and mini-games.
- Financial mannequin: Combines tokens + factors + consumption + AI-based macro controls to forestall collapse (“dying spiral”) widespread in earlier GameFi tasks.
- Neighborhood: Centered on loyalty and engagement over unsustainable person spikes.
Capverse’s governance token $CAP has already been listed on MEXC, LBank, and Toobit exchanges, signaling traction in each product and capital markets.
VI. Conclusion: Previous Cycle or New Paradigm?
The four-year Bitcoin cycle as soon as appeared unbreakable, however new forces are rising:
- Institutional capital introduces sustained inflows;
- 401(ok) pensions might present regular “lengthy streams” of capital;
- RWA tokenization presents a strong new progress narrative;
- Hong Kong’s regulatory and capital markets are fueling Asian Web3 adoption.
This bull market might not merely repeat previous emotional cycles. As a substitute, it might signify the starting of a structural monetary shift and deeper integration between crypto, conventional finance, and the actual economic system.
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