From IPO frenzy to data mystery, what happened to Figure, the “first RWA stock”?

Written by: Frank, MyStonks Analysis Institute

On September 13, 2025, a storm of skepticism concerning data authenticity hit Determine, the “first RWA inventory,” simply two days after its NASDAQ debut.

0xngmi, the founding father of the crypto data dashboard DeFiLlama, publicly identified that Determine’s on-chain asset data and buying and selling quantity have been severely inconsistent, allegedly exaggerating metrics for its IPO: it claimed to have issued $12 billion in on-chain RWA, however the verifiable reserves of BTC, ETH, and stablecoins amounted to solely about $30 million, with virtually no actual buying and selling exercise seen on-chain.

A sequence of doubts not solely pushed Determine’s constructed $10 billion RWA empire into the highlight but additionally raised a core query that Wall Road should confront: How can an efficient due diligence and verification system be established to penetrate the more and more rising on-chain narratives of Web3 firms flooding into the capital markets?

The Spotlight Second of the “First RWA Inventory”

Earlier than the storm of skepticism about data authenticity erupted, Determine’s IPO was a spotlight second for the integration of crypto property and conventional finance.

On September 11, Jap Time, Determine, as a pacesetter in the RWA sector, rang the bell on NASDAQ with an IPO value of $25, hovering to $36 at the opening, a 44% improve, and eventually closing at $31.11, with a first-day improve of 24.4%. Based mostly on the newest closing value, its market capitalization stood firmly above $6.8 billion, far exceeding its $3.2 billion valuation throughout personal fundraising in 2021.

For an organization established solely 7 years in the past, that is undoubtedly an incredible success.

The market’s excessive enthusiasm can also be attributed to Determine’s distinctive positioning as the “first RWA inventory.”

RWA, quick for Actual World Property, goals to carry real-world property reminiscent of actual property, U.S. Treasury bonds, client credit score, U.S. shares, and artworks onto the blockchain via tokenization to launch liquidity and enhance buying and selling effectivity. It is a sector with immense imaginative potential.

Taking the U.S. client credit score market, the place Determine is deeply engaged, for example, the complete scale exceeds $10 trillion, whereas the penetration fee of blockchain know-how is almost zero. Recognizing this blue ocean, Mike Cagney, the former CEO of the “P2P star firm” SoFi, based Determine in 2018, with the core enterprise of innovating mortgage companies, significantly Residence Fairness Line of Credit score (HELOC) enterprise, utilizing blockchain know-how.

Leveraging its self-developed Provenance blockchain, Determine has moved processes like mortgage approvals and asset securitization on-chain, decreasing the common mortgage approval cycle from 42 days in conventional banks to simply 5 days, considerably reducing operational prices and offering traders with greater liquidity.

This mannequin has confirmed to carry not solely a beautiful narrative but additionally strong monetary fundamentals, as seen in the monetary paperwork submitted to regulators:

• Efficiency: In the first half of 2025, it achieved a internet revenue of $29.1 million and income of $190.6 million, efficiently reversing final 12 months’s losses throughout the identical interval;
• Enterprise Progress: The U.S. has $35 trillion in residence fairness inventory, and in the 12 months ending June 30, Determine facilitated about $6 billion in residence fairness loans, a year-on-year improve of 29%;
• High quality Prospects: The weighted common FICO credit score rating of its mortgage prospects exceeds 750, demonstrating strong danger management capabilities;

Its robust market place has additionally acquired trade endorsement. In accordance to Mike Cagney, 10 of the high 20 mortgage firms in the U.S. are utilizing Determine’s know-how, and greater than 20 main banks are using its Provenance blockchain.

Due to this, Mike Cagney acknowledged in the prospectus, “Determine is the largest participant in the public blockchain house for actual property, and no different friends can surpass it.” It’s this monumental market potential and the rarity of its enterprise mannequin that collectively grant Determine a big valuation premium.

A star firm with disruptive know-how, huge market prospects, wholesome monetary standing, and a profitable IPO—this was the glamorous picture Determine introduced to the world earlier than the controversy erupted.

The B Aspect of Determine: A RWA Data Authenticity Dilemma

Nonetheless, the glamorous monetary data and profitable IPO narrative signify the A aspect of Determine proven to Wall Road, whereas its B aspect—the authenticity of on-chain data—has triggered this storm concerning the authenticity of RWA data.

To know the core of this controversy, one should first grasp the significance of TVL (Complete Worth Locked).

In the crypto world, TVL initially refers to the asset scale locked in a DeFi protocol (decentralized finance challenge) and is a typical metric used to measure the scale of DeFi enterprise, representing how a lot actual cash the market is keen to “put in danger” to belief the challenge.

The important thing problem lies right here: the TVL of RWA is basically completely different from that of DeFi:

• DeFi property are actual property like ETH and stablecoins saved in on-chain contracts, and anybody can confirm balances and transactions via a blockchain explorer;
• In distinction, RWA includes advanced off-chain modules reminiscent of custody, debt rights, and compliance, primarily recording the scale of loans and money owed in inner methods (databases) after which producing corresponding token “certificates” on the blockchain;

Subsequently, whether or not the on-chain issuance scale of RWA actually corresponds 1:1 to off-chain real-world property is tough to conclude based mostly solely on on-chain data. This inherent “two-layer” nature of on-chain and off-chain even permits challenge events to merely “map” numbers from inner databases to a number of managed addresses with no transaction information, fabricating tons of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} in TVL out of skinny air.

This makes the oversight and statistical monitoring by third-party data platforms significantly necessary. As one in every of the mostly used dashboards in the crypto discipline, DeFiLlama’s metrics have lengthy been thought to be a reference by establishments, researchers, and challenge events—the fuse was lit right here, as DeFiLlama’s TVL statistic for Determine was solely about $140 million (different enterprise traces’ TVL additionally concentrated in the tens of thousands and thousands to $1 billion vary), which is considerably completely different from the tons of of billions in RWA issuance scale publicly claimed by Determine.

Apparently, the first spark igniting this public debate over the TVL metric truly got here from Determine itself.

On September 10, the night time earlier than Determine’s IPO, its co-founder Mike Cagney all of a sudden attacked DeFiLlama on X, pointing fingers straight at them:

“We now have migrated HELOC loans (one in every of the first native client loans on public chains) to CoinGecko (notice: CoinGecko is a crypto market and data web site), however DeFiLlama refuses to rely them in TVL simply because we do not have sufficient followers to assist a $13 billion TVL… That is opposite to the authenticity and transparency represented by blockchain.”

This “preemptive” assertion rapidly fermented on social media, inserting DeFiLlama in the highlight of “unprofessionalism and opacity,” with some even suggesting that DeFiLlama might need a hidden rule of charging for listings.

Two days later, DeFiLlama founder 0xngmi revealed a prolonged article titled “The Downside in RWA Metrics” in response, clarifying that the so-called “fan rely” was not the motive for refusal to embrace, however relatively the actual problem was the severe inconsistency between Determine’s on-chain data and its claimed scale:

• Determine claimed to have issued $12 billion in on-chain RWA, however the seen BTC and ETH property on-chain have been solely $9 million, and its personal stablecoin YLDS had a complete provide of solely $20 million;
• Most mortgage enterprise continues to be settled in fiat foreign money, with on-chain funds being practically invisible;
• The transactions driving asset liquidity are principally operated by accounts unrelated to the asset holders;

In different phrases, since Determine doesn’t use public chains like Ethereum or Solana however relies on its proprietary blockchain platform, the so-called large TVL could not exclude the risk of being a mapping from the inner database on-chain, relatively than actual property that customers can freely flow into and independently confirm.

0xngmi additionally revealed that earlier than Mike Cagney’s public assault, the DeFiLlama staff had privately communicated with the Determine staff about these doubts in a Telegram group for a number of weeks, however Determine didn’t reply straight, as a substitute selecting to amplify the “fan rely” accusation via social media on the eve of the IPO, making an attempt to strain DeFiLlama to chill out its inclusion requirements to endorse the data earlier than its IPO.

Subsequently, well-known on-chain “white hat” detective ZachXBT in the crypto discipline additionally joined the fray, publicly supporting DeFiLlama and stating that Determine was utilizing a set of RWA metrics that might not be totally verified on-chain to form its scale and exert strain on third-party platforms.

Thus, a “Rashomon” surrounding data authenticity and metric requirements formally unfolded.

A Required Course for TradFi and Crypto

It’s price noting that Determine’s controversy coincides with a grand backdrop—Web3 firms are collectively and quickly embracing the capital markets.

Final week was dubbed the busiest IPO week in the U.S. since 2025. That is very true for crypto-listed firms; following the benchmark case of stablecoin issuer Circle, a number of crypto firms throughout completely different enterprise traces have lately gone public, and the capital markets have responded with unprecedented enthusiasm.

This contains the IPO of the well-known cryptocurrency change Gemini House Station Inc. (GEMI), led by billionaires Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, which acquired over 20 instances oversubscription, with the issuance value vary adjusted a number of instances, finally pricing at an unexpectedly excessive $28 per share, and hovering over 60% on the first day of buying and selling.

On the different hand, European “purchase now, pay later” (BNPL) large Klarna Group Plc (KLAR) additionally accomplished its pricing at $40 per share on September 10, elevating $1.37 billion. This pricing not solely represents an 8% premium over the initially deliberate higher restrict of $35-37 but additionally acquired over 20 instances subscription, making it extremely wanted.

It may be stated that below the twin backdrop of the Trump administration displaying a pleasant perspective in direction of the crypto trade and the passage of stablecoin laws, investor enthusiasm is not restricted to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and their associated reserve firms, however is starting to spill over into Web3 firms with particular enterprise eventualities.

This basically represents the first large-scale collision between the parallel worlds of TradFi and Crypto, and for either side, earlier than the fervor of paying excessive premiums for the attractive narratives of Web3 ends, that is an costly required course.

For TradFi, which is accustomed to studying monetary reviews and analyzing price-to-earnings ratios, Crypto firms carry a very new valuation language and due diligence dimensions. Determine has vividly uncovered the monumental dangers introduced by this “language barrier”:

Conventional due diligence can confirm Determine’s spectacular off-chain monetary data—income development, revenue turnaround, high quality prospects. Nonetheless, the core assist for its $10 billion valuation comes from an on-chain narrative that’s considerably unfamiliar to TradFi. Wall Road should catch up and be taught on-chain metrics and verification strategies to keep away from being captured by an attractive “RWA narrative” and a string of enticing TVL numbers.

The identical applies to Crypto, which is raring to embrace the mainstream. Going public means accepting extra clear metrics and stricter disclosures. Making an attempt to leverage data asymmetry could win quickly, however in the crypto world the place on-chain data will be scrutinized at any time, it’s akin to strolling a tightrope. As soon as uncovered, it is not going to solely destroy the credibility of a single firm but additionally deepen the mainstream world’s unfavourable stereotypes about the whole trade.

No matter how Determine’s Rashomon finally concludes, it can function a big case of convergence between TradFi and Crypto by way of valuation logic, transparency requirements, and belief methods.