Key takeaways:
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Constructive Coinbase Premium Index indicators robust US retail demand shopping for the dip.
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Robust ETF inflows and Bitcoin treasury firms bolster BTC’s restoration potential.
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Regardless of aggressive short-side stress, the danger of one other liquidation occasion is lowering.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell from its month-to-month excessive of round $118,000, dropping as a lot as 5.5% to as we speak’s intraday low of $111,571. Whereas that is solely a ten.4% drawdown from the $124,500 all-time high, a number of metrics counsel that the worth vary between $112,000 and $111,500 may be the new backside vary earlier than BTC recovers to new highs.
Coinbase Premium stays optimistic regardless of worth dip
Bitcoin’s recent recovery to a four-week excessive of $118,000 from a low of $107,400 between Sept. 1 and Sept. 18 may be partially attributed to elevated retail demand in the United States. That was evident by a pointy rise in the Coinbase Premium Index over that interval.
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the distinction in pricing between the BTC/USD pair on the largest US trade, Coinbase, and Binance’s BTC/USDT equal.
Associated: Biggest long liquidation of the year: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Extra importantly, the index stays optimistic, rising to 0.075 on Sept. 22 from 0.043 on Sept. 21, whilst Bitcoin tumbled 4% to $112,000.
“The Coinbase premium stayed optimistic all week,” even with the newest sell-off, said analyst BTC_Chopsticks in an X submit on Monday, including:
“So long as the index stays optimistic, I stay bullish on BTC.”
A rising Coinbase premium is a proxy for rising demand from US retail buyers.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s obvious demand, which presents a broader onchain view of worldwide BTC demand, stays excessive regardless of yesterday’s worth drop, with a slight improve over the final 24 hours.
This means that new buyers proceed coming into the market, offering the tailwinds required to set off BTC worth restoration.
Institutional Bitcoin demand “stays agency”
BTC’s upside potential is backed by growing institutional demand, evidenced by robust inflows into Bitcoin funding merchandise.
Information from CoinShares exhibits that institutional investors increased their exposure to Bitcoin funding merchandise, which noticed inflows of $977 million, making up greater than 51% of the whole inflows final week.
US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs noticed $876 million in web inflows final week, knowledge from SoSoValue exhibits.
In the meantime, Bitcoin treasury firms are aggressively accumulating, with Japan’s Metaplanet becoming the fifth largest Bitcoin holder after buying 5,419 BTC for $632.53 million, bringing its whole to 25,555 BTC price practically $3 billion.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy added 850 BTC for $99.7 million final week, bringing its whole Bitcoin holdings to 639,835 BTC.
“Regardless of near-term weak spot, institutional assist stays agency,” buying and selling firm QCP Capital wrote in a be aware to buyers on Tuesday, including:
“Technique and Metaplanet proceed so as to add, whereas spot ETF inflows final week sign sustained dip-buying. ”
Merchants are additionally positioning for October, which is “traditionally BTC’s strongest month, with energetic demand for 120K–125K Calls,” it added.
BTC absorbs sell-side stress from brief merchants
Regardless of sustained sell-side aggression on Binance derivatives since mid-July, Bitcoin has largely held its floor inside a decent $110,000–$120,000 vary. Cumulative Quantity Delta (CVD) knowledge remains adverse, signaling constant short-selling stress from takers.
Nonetheless, the incapacity of the worth to interrupt considerably decrease means that this circulate is being absorbed, implying accumulation.
This structural resilience could be strengthened by liquidation knowledge pointing towards lowered downward stress.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr mentioned that though the massive long liquidations seen yesterday urged that the bears are dominating the market, the frequency of liquidations stays low, including:
“Threat of additional bearish stress from liquidations is medium.”
Threat of additional bearish stress from liquidations is medium.
Web Liquidations stay adverse close to −40M, reflecting ongoing lengthy wipeouts and protecting draw back stress in place. But the Liquidation Depth Z-Rating (365d) is impartial/reasonable, suggesting no cascade danger for… pic.twitter.com/FRu9spsyCZ
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 23, 2025
Excessive US retail demand, robust institutional assist and lowered danger of a liquidation-driven drop strengthen the argument that Bitcoin is forming a backside close to $112,000.
Whereas short-term volatility may persist, the underlying bid, presumably institutional, may make a pointy correction beneath this degree more and more unlikely.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
