BTC RSI Hits April Lows as Coinbase Premium Turns Red

Key takeaways:

• The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium flipped crimson as BTC value dropped beneath $104,000.

• Bitcoin’s RSI hit its lowest level since April, hinting at a possible backside zone.

• The 200-day EMA assist remained essential as BTC dangers short-term capitulation.

Bitcoin (BTC) prolonged its latest decline on Friday, slipping to $103,500 and triggering a notable shift in onchain market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the worth distinction between BTC on Coinbase and different exchanges, flipped crimson on the hourly chart for the primary time in weeks.

Earlier this week, BTC attempted to search out assist round $110,000, buoyed by regular spot demand from US buyers. The Coinbase premium even spiked to 0.18, its highest studying since March 2024.

Nevertheless, as the worth failed to carry above $110,000 on Thursday, that short-term confidence pale. Whereas the hourly premium has turned destructive, the day by day studying remained barely constructive, indicating that long-term US shopping for assist hasn’t totally disappeared, however it’s at the moment beneath pressure.

Including to the bearish strain, Bitcoin’s taker promote quantity surged above $4 billion, signaling a wave of market promote orders. The transfer coincided with BTC’s rejection close to the short-term holder (STH) realized value at $112,370, a key stage that now acted as resistance.

Traditionally, this stage marked the common price foundation for latest patrons, which means that sustained rejection beneath it might speed up short-term capitulation towards $100,000. 

Related: Bitcoin holds $105K as US bank stocks recover, Trump truce lifts sentiment

Bitcoin mirrors its March–April backside construction

BTC’s present value motion intently resembles the March–April backside vary, when sharp intra-day wicks cleared out liquidity constructed over 30 days earlier than a gradual restoration started. The sample instructed that BTC might retest the $100,000 vary with out essentially breaking the broader bullish construction, until it falls decisively beneath that stage.

The relative power index or RSI additionally dropped to its lowest stage, matching April’s low worth of 34, following which BTC began to get well within the charts. 

A key technical sign to observe is the 200-day exponential shifting common (EMAs), which BTC has held for practically six months. Within the earlier cycle, it maintained this development from October 2024 to March 2024 earlier than briefly dropping it throughout consolidation. This time, the trendline has held from April to October 2025, with the worth presumably dropping the trendline within the coming days.

If BTC continues to observe its prior fractal, the market might enter a consolidation part lasting a number of weeks. In Q1, the restoration part prolonged practically 45–55 days, forming a real backside solely in late April. Making use of the identical timeline suggests {that a} gradual restoration might not materialize till late November or early December.

Crypto dealer Dentoshi echoed this view and said, 

“$BTC has persistently bottomed across the 3-day 100 EMA this bull run—nevertheless it’s taken 45–96 days to take action.”

Related: Bitcoin ‘bull run is over,’ traders say, with 50% BTC price crash warning

This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.