BTC Rebound Targets $110K But CME Gap Clouds Outlook

Key takeaways:

• The Bitcoin double backside sample could enhance bullish momentum towards $110,000.

• The CME hole close to $104,000 may set off a short-term retracement.

• Stablecoin buildup and short-term holders’ stress trace at near-term volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a textbook double backside sample over the weekend, main BTC to safe a bullish weekly shut above its 50-week transferring common. The formation coincided with the every day order block between $98,100 and $102,000, the place BTC repeatedly examined the $100,000 zone earlier than rebounding.

Following a bullish break of construction on the four-hour chart, Bitcoin now faces resistance close to $111,300, a degree that could possibly be examined if short-term momentum holds. Nonetheless, onchain information steered this advance could not come as simply.

Glassnode explained that Bitcoin rebounded from the seventy fifth percentile price foundation close to $100,000. The following vital hurdle lies close to the eighty fifth percentile price foundation, roughly $108,500, a degree that has traditionally acted as resistance throughout restoration strikes. The percentile price foundation metric measures the place nearly all of traders acquired their BTC, successfully mapping the fee distribution throughout the market.

Nonetheless, Cointelegraph noted a possible liquidity seize above $115,000, which aligns with a every day resistance degree, with long-side liquidity close to $100,000 exhausted.

Moreover, a CME hole from $103,100 to $104,000 stays a key short-term threat. CME gaps happen when Bitcoin’s weekend value motion creates a distinction between Friday’s closing and Monday’s opening value on the Chicago Mercantile Trade, and these gaps usually get “crammed” as merchants revisit these ranges, suggesting BTC could briefly retrace earlier than resuming its uptrend.

With liquidity and participation scaling down, BTC may revisit $101,000–$102,500, retesting the weekend’s one-hour and four-hour order blocks earlier than making a decisive transfer increased.

Related: ‘Most hated bull run ever?’ 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Stablecoin power may form short-term BTC outlook

CryptoQuant information indicated the Stablecoin Provide Ratio (SSR) has plunged to 13.1 from above 18 earlier this yr, one of many lowest ranges in 2025. The drop signifies rising stablecoin reserves relative to Bitcoin’s market cap, an indication of offchain liquidity accumulation awaiting a market sign. 

Over the previous month, SSR fell to 13 from 15 whereas BTC hovered close to $105,000, hinting that patrons are ready for affirmation earlier than deploying capital.

Conversely, crypto analyst Darkfost observed a 40% rise in short-term holder (STH) inflows to Binance since September, to eight,700 BTC from 5,000 BTC. With the realized value for STHs about $112,000, many stay underwater and are more and more reactive to short-term volatility. This cohort’s promoting stress usually precedes mid-cycle shakeouts earlier than broader bullish continuations, including a layer of short-term instability.

Related: Bitcoin, ETH ETFs see $1.7B outflow but whale buying softens the price impact

This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.