In distinction to the influx of capital into expertise stocks and the rebound in gold following a pointy decline, Bitcoin was a notable exception in the market on Friday: it fell 5% in opposition to the development, hitting a six-month low and marking its third consecutive weekly decline. This distinction highlights an uncommon state of affairs in the Bitcoin market: regardless of sustaining a excessive correlation of 0.8 with the Nasdaq 100 Index, Bitcoin displays an uneven attribute of “falling more durable and rising weaker.” In the meantime, elevated sell-offs by main holders, together with concentrated promoting by long-term buyers, are collectively weighing on Bitcoin.
Discount-hunting funds have flowed into expertise stocks, and gold has rebounded after a pointy decline, however Bitcoin has remained mired in a hunch, exhibiting no indicators of restoration. What precisely is occurring behind the scenes? Why has the once-booming cryptocurrency market turned so bleak?
On Friday (November 14), the U.S. inventory market skilled a dramatic reversal. After a panic-driven sell-off at the opening, funds rushed to purchase expertise stocks, resulting in a robust rebound in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices after they hit key technical assist ranges. In the meantime, gold, which had plunged by greater than $150 throughout the session, rebounded to round $4,080 per ounce. Nevertheless, Bitcoin stood out as a notable exception, dropping 5% on the day and falling beneath the $94,000 mark to succeed in a six-month low.
This marks Bitcoin’s third consecutive weekly decline and its fifth drop in the previous six weeks. Much more alarming is that since the flash crash on October 10, the shockwaves in the cryptocurrency market have proven no indicators of abating—the whole market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has misplaced over $1 trillion.
This distinction reveals an uncommon state of affairs for Bitcoin: whereas sustaining a excessive correlation of 0.8 with the Nasdaq 100 Index, Bitcoin displays an asymmetrical sample of “falling more durable and rising weaker.” Extra notably, in line with an article by Wall Avenue Information, the crypto worry and greed index has dropped to fifteen factors, hitting its lowest degree since February this yr. The final time the index fell beneath 20 factors, Bitcoin plummeted by 25% inside a month.
At the identical time, a number of elements are collectively weighing down Bitcoin. Lengthy-term holders have offered roughly 815,000 Bitcoins over the previous 30 days, marking the highest file since early 2024. A liquidity crunch has prompted Bitcoin ETFs to expertise web outflows for 5 consecutive weeks. Even the Trump household’s cryptocurrency-related wealth has not been spared, with their holdings of World Liberty Monetary tokens and American Bitcoin shares each retreating about 30% from their peaks.
Expertise Stocks Stage a Dramatic Comeback, While Bitcoin Plummets Towards the Development
Friday’s market actions had been nothing wanting a story of “fireplace and ice.” The Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index rebounded rapidly after hitting the 50-day shifting common assist degree, whereas small-cap stocks discovered assist at the 100-day shifting common. In accordance with Goldman Sachs dealer Scott Rubner, market sentiment underwent a dramatic shift from “absolute panic” (4:00 AM to 9:30 AM) to “robust restoration” (10:00 AM to 11:00 AM).
This V-shaped reversal is not any accident. In accordance with Goldman Sachs knowledge, after the S&P 500 index fell by a minimum of 1.5% in a single day in 2025, it rebounded on common by 1.1% the following day.
ETF buying and selling exercise turned the fundamental pressure for early-session cut price looking, accounting for 37% of the day’s buying and selling quantity, considerably larger than the year-to-date common of 27%. The Mag7 index of tech giants strongly rebounded after hitting the 50-day shifting common, ending the week flat, with hedge funds’ demand for masking quick positions at the 96th percentile.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin didn’t take part in this rebound in any respect. On Friday, Bitcoin fell by 5%, reaching a low of $94,519, its lowest level since Might 6, and ended the week with a decline of 9.14%, marking its worst weekly efficiency since the week of February 28. Since hitting a file excessive of $126,272 on October 5, Bitcoin has cumulatively declined by roughly 25%.
This divergence seems significantly putting in opposition to the backdrop of improved market liquidity. Goldman Sachs merchants famous:
Hedge funds are shopping for throughout the board, with demand at the 96th percentile; high-beta momentum stocks, most-shorted stocks, and AI-leading stocks rebounded from a gap drop of three% to shut up by 3%. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin market remains below stress, indicating that it’s experiencing difficulties distinct from conventional threat belongings.
“Falling more durable, rising weaker” irregular correlation
The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index remains as excessive as roughly 0.8, however this relationship displays a distorted sample—Bitcoin solely strikes in sync with the inventory market throughout declines, whereas exhibiting sluggish responses throughout rallies.
Information exhibits that Bitcoin’s efficiency skew relative to the Nasdaq has been considerably adverse year-to-date:
When the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin’s features are notably smaller; when the Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin drops much more sharply. This isn’t a breakdown of correlation however somewhat a manifestation of asymmetry—Bitcoin absorbs draw back dangers however fails to share in upside returns.
Extra notably, this adverse skew on a 365-day rolling foundation has reached its highest degree since the bear market at the finish of 2022—a interval that coincided with one yr after Bitcoin peaked in the earlier cycle.
Historic expertise signifies that such large-scale adverse asymmetry sometimes happens during times of extraordinarily weak market sentiment and costs nearing backside, somewhat than at elevated ranges. What’s the logic behind this anomaly?
A shift in market focus is a key issue. In 2025, the narrative capital that when circulated inside the cryptocurrency area—new token issuance, infrastructure upgrades, retail participation—has shifted towards the inventory market.
Massive-cap expertise stocks have develop into magnets for each institutional and retail buyers looking for high-beta progress. In comparison with the frenzy of 2020-2021, marginal will increase in threat urge for food now move extra towards Nasdaq than digital belongings.
Which means that Bitcoin retains its high-beta traits throughout macro risk-off intervals however has misplaced its narrative premium throughout rallies. It reacts merely as a ‘high-beta tail’ of macro threat, somewhat than as an impartial funding theme.
Modifications in liquidity construction have exacerbated this asymmetry. Stablecoin issuance has peaked, ETF inflows have slowed, and change market depth has but to get better to early-2024 ranges.
This vulnerability amplifies Bitcoin’s adverse response throughout inventory market corrections, ensuing in its draw back participation persistently exceeding upside participation.
The crypto worry index plummeted to its lowest degree of the yr.
Market sentiment indicators are confirming this extraordinarily pessimistic ambiance. In accordance with a Wall Avenue Perception article, on November 13, the Crypto Concern & Greed Index plunged to fifteen factors, hitting its lowest degree since February this yr.
This ‘excessive worry’ studying is alarming — the final time the index fell beneath 20 factors was on February 27, adopted by a 25% drop in Bitcoin’s value to $75,000 inside a month.
A report from market sentiment evaluation platform Santiment exhibits a pointy enhance in adverse discussions surrounding the three main cryptocurrencies — Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP — with the constructive/adverse sentiment ratio considerably declining and sentiment ranges far beneath regular.
This means that adverse discussions are dominating market narratives, with investor confidence remaining persistently low.
Since the large-scale liquidation occasion on October 11, key sentiment indicators have proven that market sentiment has didn’t get better and has as a substitute deteriorated additional.
Though Santiment interprets this excessive adverse sentiment as a doubtlessly bullish sign indicating a potential native backside, the present value motion clearly lacks definitive indicators of a reversal.
Elevated sell-offs by whales, with long-term holders offloading their concentrated positions.
A number of elements are collectively weighing on Bitcoin because it remains in a hunch.
In accordance with experiences, the promoting stress from “whales” (holders of over 1,000 Bitcoins) and long-term holders has considerably contributed to Bitcoin’s drop beneath the key milestone of $100,000.
Blockchain knowledge exhibits that long-term Bitcoin holders have offered roughly 815,000 Bitcoins in the previous 30 days, marking the highest degree of sell-off exercise since the starting of 2024. Extra critically, whale wallets holding Bitcoin for over seven years have been persistently promoting at a price exceeding 1,000 Bitcoins per hour.
This sell-off displays traits of “ongoing, staggered distribution,” somewhat than a sudden coordinated dump. Evaluation signifies that many early adopters view $100,000 as a psychological threshold—a profit-taking degree they have been discussing for years. Since Bitcoin first breached $100,000 in December 2024, the tempo of promoting by long-term holders has accelerated.
Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin and a veteran in the Bitcoin trade, acknowledged:
“Many early adopters I do know have been speaking about the $100,000 determine ever since I entered this area in 2017. For some motive, it’s the degree individuals have all the time mentioned they might promote at.”
Nevertheless, what is actually regarding is just not the promoting itself however the weakening capacity of the market to soak up these sell-offs. In late final yr and early this yr, when long-term holders offered Bitcoin, different patrons would step in to assist costs, however this dynamic appears to have shifted.
ETF fund flows corroborate weak demand. As of Thursday, Bitcoin ETFs recorded web outflows of $311.3 million this week, marking what will likely be the fifth consecutive week of outflows—the longest streak since March 14. Over the previous 5 weeks, cumulative outflows reached $2.6 billion, second solely to the $3.3 billion outflow over 5 weeks ending March 28.
Even the Trump household’s wealth has not escaped vital harm.
As the cryptocurrency market experiences turbulence, the wealth that the Trump household has gathered from cryptocurrencies can also be shrinking.
Inside a month of Bitcoin hitting a excessive of $126,272 on October 5, each the cryptocurrency-related stocks and tokens held by Trump and his household have plummeted considerably.
The Trump household’s cryptocurrency funding portfolio contains Trump Media & Expertise Group, the blockchain firm World Liberty Monetary, and the Bitcoin mining agency American Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin’s October peak, the token for World Liberty Monetary in addition to the stocks of American Bitcoin and DJT have all dropped by roughly 30%.
In accordance with Trump’s authorities monetary disclosure type filed in mid-June, the president not directly holds almost 115 million shares of DJT by means of a revocable belief below the identify of his son, Don Jr. Valued at Friday’s costs, this quantities to round $1.3 billion, a pointy decline from almost $2 billion at the starting of October.
The World Liberty web site exhibits that Trump and his household maintain roughly 22.5 billion World Liberty Monetary tokens, that are valued at about $3.4 billion at Friday’s costs, down from a peak of $4.5 billion. Eric Trump holds a 7.5% stake in American Bitcoin, which is now value roughly $340 million, in comparison with its peak worth of $480 million.
Regardless of quite a few efforts by the Trump administration to advertise the cryptocurrency trade—together with establishing a Bitcoin ‘strategic reserve’ and the U.S. Securities and Change Fee withdrawing lawsuits in opposition to corporations reminiscent of Coinbase and Binance—these coverage tailwinds have failed to stop a major pullback in the cryptocurrency market.
