For months now, bitcoin has adopted a frustratingly acquainted sample for the bulls: seemingly over-correlated with the Nasdaq 100 when that inventory gauge headed decrease, however dropping almost all correlation when the main tech index moved increased.
This week proved no completely different, with the Nasdaq tumbling on 2% on Thursday and bitcoin plunging twice as a lot. Friday then introduced a modest rally for tech shares, one which bitcoin did not come near matching.
Headed into the final 6 six weeks of 2025, year-to-date features for the Nasdaq 100 now stand at 20%, whereas bitcoin is barely within the inexperienced, up simply 3%.
A mirrored image of asymmetry
What’s occurring, according to a report this week from Wintermute’s Jasper De Maere, isn’t a lack of correlation with the Nasdaq 100, which stays excessive at about 0.8.
“This isn’t a breakdown of correlation, however a mirrored image of asymmetry, the uneven manner BTC responds to danger,” stated De Maere. “When equities rally, BTC’s response is muted. After they dump, BTC tends to maneuver extra sharply in the identical path.”
De Maere measures this by “efficiency skew,” with “constructive skew” being bitcoin outperforming in a risk-on setting and “adverse skew” being bitcoin lagging in a risk-off setting.
It will likely be no shock to anybody paying consideration that skew has been solidly adverse for a while.
Making an attempt to place a quantity on it, Da Maere charted the share of days on a 365-day rolling foundation during which BTC has seen constructive efficiency skew versus the Nasdaq.
What he discovered is that it is fallen to ranges not seen for the reason that backside of the final main bear market in late 2022.
Why so dangerous? Da Maere suggests a lack of mindshare for bitcoin as each institutional and retail speculative appetites have been fairly happy in shares. There are additionally liquidity points as ETF inflows have slowed, stablecoin issuance has plateaued and market depth throughout exchanges nonetheless stays beneath early 2024 ranges.
Hopeful outlook
“Traditionally, this sort of adverse asymmetry doesn’t seem close to tops however slightly exhibits up close to bottoms,” concluded Da Maere. “When BTC falls more durable on dangerous fairness days than it rises on good ones, it normally alerts exhaustion, not energy.”
“The present BTC/Nasdaq efficiency skew means that BTC buyers are considerably exhausted and have been for some time.”
