BTC Eyes a Rare December Rally To Beat Strong Bearish Odds

Bitcoin (BTC) entered the brand new month with a statistical headwind it has by no means overcome: Each time November ended within the crimson, BTC struggled to show bullish in December. But this yr’s construction seems materially completely different, with momentum, liquidity rotation and cycle deviations pushing towards what has been a 100% bearish seasonal setup.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s bearish December interval might change with decreased leverage, and worth reclaiming a key technical stage, hinting at a extra secure setup.

• Macroeconomic liquidity and M2 velocity are diverging from Bitcoin’s shopping for exercise, which is often seen within the center levels of a bull market.

• Bitcoin’s cycle construction has advanced, with spot ETF inflows and international liquidity dynamics altering the standard halving-based cycles.

Seasonality breakers and the case of cycle deviation for BTC

Bitcoin returns in This autumn have lengthy mirrored robust seasonality, with a weak December efficiency usually following a detrimental November. But market construction has considerably diverged sharply from previous cycles in 2025. 

BTC’s worth has returned above its month-to-month rolling volume-weighted common worth (rVWAP) ranges, signalling managed distribution and high-timeframe development adoption. A major drop in open curiosity from $94 billion to $60 billion has normalized or reset the market with out killing spot inflows, creating a cleaner base for continuation.

From a technical standpoint, deep liquidity clusters have migrated from November’s draw back liquidation, totaling about $1 billion close to $80,000, to the upside inefficient clusters. In the meanwhile, $3 billion in cumulative quick positions can be liquidated at $96,000 and over $7 billion as soon as BTC hits $100,000.

Thus, these components do counsel that December could possibly be mispriced relative to its historic chance curve of Bitcoin’s efficiency.

Nonetheless, the present momentum might be deceiving. Cointelegraph noted that the taker purchase/promote ratio close to 1.17 confirmed urgency, not depth, and sometimes appeared when positioning is crowded. Market analyst EndGame Macro said it mirrored aggressive buys however not essentially sustainable accumulation.

Concurrently, M2 velocity has flattened, signaling that the broader financial engine could also be shedding momentum whilst threat belongings proceed to stretch increased. This creates a setup typical of late market-cycle phases, the place markets get louder whereas the underlying economic system will get quieter.

Towards this backdrop, Bitcoin’s try to ascertain its first-ever inexperienced December after a detrimental November turns into a take a look at of whether or not positioning can overpower broader market fundamentals.

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A change past the standard halving clock

Over the previous few months, analysts have argued that a four-year cycle for Bitcoin doesn’t absolutely clarify BTC’s present market construction. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the four-year cycle hasn’t disappeared, but it surely now not aligns cleanly with time-based expectations.

Spot BTC ETF inflows have launched a fixed, structural bid, accelerating worth discovery and elevating Bitcoin’s efficient ground in contrast with earlier cycles.

Van de Poppe argued that this cycle resembles an prolonged liquidity part, just like mid-2016 or late 2019, when threat belongings strengthened regardless of uneven macroeconomic information.

Supporting indicators, such because the CNY/USD correlation with ETH/BTC, usually flip increased early in expansionary home windows, not close to market cycle peaks. 

In the meantime, business-cycle alerts, such because the Buying Managers’ Index (PMI), are slowly enhancing, alongside gold’s relative energy, suggesting that threat urge for food is rebuilding from cyclical lows quite than weakening. Van de Popped added,

“Now, if we mix the enterprise cycle energy/weak spot with Bitcoin cycles, then once more, the correlation is sort of clear. This stage is corresponding to Q1/2 2016, This autumn 2019. We’re nowhere close to a prime on Bitcoin, and we’re nonetheless within the ultimate straightforward cycle of crypto with exorbitant returns.”

On this context, Bitcoin’s December setup relies upon much less on repeating historic seasonality and extra on whether or not new structural forces, similar to spot ETF inflows, liquidity rotation and shifting macroeconomic correlations, outweigh older halving-driven cycles.

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This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a resolution.