KHOU 11 power professional Ed Hirs says ERCOT’s winter outlook has improved considerably in comparison with earlier years.
HOUSTON — A brand new trade report warns that Texas’ quickly increasing data heart trade could put extra stress on the state’s power grid this winter. However specialists say ERCOT continues to be in a stronger place than it was through the lethal 2021 winter storm.
The findings come simply days earlier than ERCOT’s board of administrators meets to debate how giant energy-hungry amenities, together with data centers and cryptocurrency mines, are reshaping electrical energy demand throughout the state.
In accordance with the North American Electrical Reliability Company, or NERC, winter electrical energy demand continues to rise throughout the ERCOT area, pushed partially by the expansion of 24/7 data centers powering AI techniques and different high-tech operations.
NERC’s 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Evaluation warns that these amenities are “reshaping” when Texans use power. As a result of data centers run across the clock, the report says they’re flattening the day by day load curve, stretching peak demand durations into longer home windows — significantly earlier than dawn and after sundown, when photo voltaic is not accessible.
The evaluation exhibits ERCOT has sufficient capability underneath regular situations, however in an excessive chilly state of affairs, the grid could face tighter reserves, just like what the state skilled throughout Winter Storm Uri.
KHOU 11 power professional Ed Hirs says ERCOT’s winter outlook has improved considerably in comparison with earlier years.
“If a storm comes by like we had in February of 2021, ERCOT estimates a 20% chance of rolling blackouts,” Hirs mentioned. “That is so much higher than final yr’s estimate of 80%.”
In accordance with ERCOT’s Month-to-month Outlook for Useful resource Adequacy for January 2026, the grid operator’s highest-risk hour this winter is round 8 a.m., when chilly morning temperatures coincide with little or no photo voltaic manufacturing. ERCOT estimates only a 1.4% likelihood of issuing an Vitality Emergency Alert throughout that peak hour underneath regular situations — far under the emergency situations Texans skilled almost 5 years in the past.
Hirs says the pressure on the grid is not solely from data centers. Cryptocurrency mining — one other high-power, round the clock trade — has change into considered one of Texas’ greatest electrical energy customers.
“The cryptocurrency miners now prior to now yr have used as a lot electrical energy as El Paso and town of San Antonio,” Hirs mentioned. “Now, simply in 2021, that was as much as the extent of Austin.”
Crypto’s large electrical energy consumption, he warns, pushes costs larger for everybody else.
The mixture of rising pure fuel costs and surging industrial electrical energy use means Texans ought to count on larger electrical energy payments this winter.
“The cryptocurrency miners are the parasitic load to the ERCOT grid,” Hirs mentioned.
Hirs says AI data centers haven’t but reached the power consumption of crypto mines, however demand is rising quickly.
A lot of these corporations are planning to deliver their very own on-site power era, which could assist ease stress on the statewide grid.
“Most of them are working to deliver their very own electrical energy era with them,” Hirs mentioned. “Texas has been lucky with an enormous build-out of wind, photo voltaic, and batteries, so we’re higher in a position to take up these new data centers — a minimum of in the intervening time.”
ERCOT’s board will meet Tuesday in Austin to debate and deal with the problem of enormous digital hundreds, a class that features each data centers and crypto mining operations.
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