CryptoQuant stated a bitcoin bear market has already began, citing a pointy slowdown in demand development.
Demand slowdown since October
CryptoQuant wrote in a Friday report that spot demand development has “decisively slowed,” arguing the market has shifted right into a bear regime.
The agency stated demand has fallen under development since early October 2025, after three main demand waves since 2023 tied to the U.S. spot ETF launch, the U.S. presidential election consequence, and a bitcoin treasury-company “bubble.”
CryptoQuant stated this implies most incremental demand within the present cycle has already been absorbed, lowering worth assist:
“BTC demand development has decisively slowed, signaling a transition right into a bear market.”
Value ranges: $70,000 and $56,000
CryptoQuant stated “intermediate assist” is predicted round $70,000.
It added that bitcoin bear market bottoms have traditionally aligned with the realized worth, which it put close to $56,000:
“Traditionally, bitcoin bear market bottoms have aligned with the realized worth, presently close to $56,000.”
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of analysis, instructed The Block {that a} transfer to $70,000 may occur inside months:
“$70,000 could possibly be in three to 6 months.”
ETFs and derivatives indicators
CryptoQuant stated U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs grew to become internet sellers in This fall 2025, with holdings down roughly 24,000 BTC.
The agency additionally pointed to weakening development in addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, a cohort that features ETFs and bitcoin treasury corporations.
CryptoQuant stated perpetual futures funding charges on a 365-day shifting common fell to their lowest degree since December 2023.
It additionally stated bitcoin slipped under its 365-day shifting common, a long-term degree typically related to bull/bear situations.
CryptoQuant added that demand cycles, not the halving, drive bitcoin’s four-year cycle:
“Demand cycles — not halvings — drive bitcoin’s four-year cycle.”
Bitcoin was buying and selling round $87,800 on the time of the report.
