As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to underperform gold and main fairness indices, traders are more and more questioning whether or not this cycle is unfolding in another way than anticipated. In a brand new interview with analyst Benjamin Cowen, we dig into why Bitcoin is lagging conventional markets, and why the current setup might really feel strikingly just like 2019.
Cowen factors out that whereas shares and gold are responding positively to expectations round future financial easing, Bitcoin seems much more delicate to precise liquidity situations fairly than optimism alone.
That distinction, he explains, helps make clear why BTC has struggled to realize momentum whilst broader markets push greater. Based on Cowen, Bitcoin usually requires a clearer macroeconomic catalyst earlier than it may possibly outperform, and that catalyst might not but be in place.
A key theme of the dialogue is sentiment. In contrast to earlier cycle peaks characterised by widespread enthusiasm and retail hypothesis, this market has been marked by relative apathy.
Cowen explains why topping in an atmosphere of low consideration is uncommon for Bitcoin, and the way that distinction might form the trail ahead over the subsequent couple of years.
The dialog additionally touches on the four-year cycle debate. Whereas many commentators argue that Bitcoin’s historic cycle framework is not related, Cowen presents information suggesting that broader market cycles, not simply crypto-specific narratives, nonetheless play a big function.
He outlines why macro headwinds, together with labor market developments and restrictive monetary situations, might proceed to weigh on Bitcoin into 2026, even when short-term rallies happen alongside the best way.
Reasonably than specializing in actual worth targets, the interview facilities on course of over prediction; how traders can take into consideration cycles, threat and persistence in an atmosphere the place simple liquidity shouldn’t be assured. Cowen additionally briefly addresses what this implies for altcoins and why expectations for fast rotations could also be misplaced.
Watch the total interview on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel to listen to Cowen’s full reasoning, charts, and the deeper macro context behind his outlook.
