Filmmakers typically reference the stress to make sequels greater than the unique. If 2026 is seen as a sequel, it might simply comply with by means of on banking observers’ predictions that it’ll surpass its previous yr. Extra offers. Extra new banks. Extra regulation (in distinction to 2025’s stripping down of guidelines).
The banking sphere noticed 181 mergers and acquisitions in 2025, in line with S&P International. Brian Graham, co-founder of the monetary providers advisory agency Klaros Group, predicted 2026 might see double that determine, given pent-up stress from slower exercise early in the decade – and a a lot faster analysis interval by regulators.
And to compound issues, some analysts anticipate that banks seeking to make a deal might act sooner somewhat than later in case 2026 midterm elections – or the 2028 vote – ship the political pendulum in one other course.
Smaller banks, although, might even see their “purchaser universe” shrink as the midsize lenders they as soon as counted on as potential acquirers turn into acquisition targets for greater banks.
M&A isn’t the solely space the place numbers are spiking. The Workplace of the Comptroller of the Forex noticed 18 de novo functions filed in 2025. Michele Alt, one other Klaros co-founder, estimated the company might see 25 this yr. And, certainly, after solely January, that subject already consists of Bunq, Trump crypto agency World Liberty Financial and Nomura spinoff Laser Digital.
If 2025 marked a yr of deregulation – whereby businesses rolled again Biden-era guidelines that misplaced favor – 2026 could also be the yr Trump-appointed regulators mildew guidelines to their liking.
Listed here are a few of the developments Banking Dive thinks will take heart stage in 2026.
