Bitcoin Price Forecasts Say $50,000 Is on the Way

Bitcoin (BTC) begins its second week of February, licking its wounds as merchants stay bearish on BTC.

• Market forecasts agree that Bitcoin value motion has not but put in a dependable long-term backside.

• CPI week comes as markets lose religion in Fed fee cuts in March.

• US greenback energy begins to fade as analysts eye a possible rerun of 2021 for Bitcoin-dollar correlation.

• Japan’s election turns heads, with evaluation seeing a weaker yen and crypto headwinds to return.

• Bitcoin miners ship massive quantities to exchanges as the mud settles on the snap draw back.

BTC value anticipated to try $60,000 retest

Bitcoin continues to commerce above $70,000 as the week will get underway, however merchants are something however bullish on the short-term BTC value outlook.

Knowledge from TradingView reveals an absence of volatility round the weekly shut, with BTC/USD staying round 20% larger versus its 15-month lows from final week.

In an X thread overlaying decrease time frames, dealer CrypNuevo warned that the present reduction could find yourself as a manipulative transfer to liquidate late brief positions.

“The intention to push value up first could be to hit the brief liquidations that exist between $72k-$77k primarily. However this transfer is only a guess,” he wrote. 

“What we’re actually anticipating right here is the lengthy wick getting stuffed at the very least 50% of it in the subsequent weekly candles.”

CrypNuevo implied that the lows might see at the very least a partial retest in the brief time period.

“It may very well be an instantaneous wick-fill. However in the case of getting a transfer up first, then it might in all probability take round 5-8 weekly candles to get stuffed,” he forecast. 

At the weekend, Cointelegraph reported on a broad consensus that value would make new macro lows in the future — and that these might take BTC/USD to $50,000 or decrease.

Guys this isn’t the backside. It’s only a bounce.

Traditionally $BTC drops 80% throughout its bear market.

That places us close to 40k

— Roman (@Roman_Trading) February 6, 2026

Dealer Daan Crypto Trades in the meantime thought-about much less thrilling BTC value motion to return subsequent.

“After such a risky few weeks, value will try to start out ranging in some unspecified time in the future. With this current spike in volatility and massive retrace yesterday, there is a good probability we’re hitting that time about now,” he told X followers Sunday. 

“Would count on volatility to slowly come off a bit once more, a variety to be fashioned and from there on out we are able to reassess and search for alternatives.”

CPI due as Fed coverage nerves emerge

The macro focus is again on US inflation knowledge this week as wild gyrations in valuable metals settle.

The January print of the Shopper Price Index (CPI), due Friday, types the spotlight and can observe varied US employment knowledge releases.

“Earnings season can also be in full swing and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated,” buying and selling useful resource The Kobeissi Letter added on the week’s outlook.

Since asserting the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, President Donald Trump has didn’t calm market nerves about future monetary coverage. His decide, Kevin Warsh, is considered notionally against easing monetary circumstances — one thing that has already weighed on risk-asset efficiency.

Markets thus have little religion in rates of interest going decrease at the Fed’s subsequent assembly in mid-March — even when Warsh is simply as a consequence of take over in Might.

Knowledge from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool at the moment provides 82% odds of charges staying at present ranges.

Commenting, analytics useful resource Mosaic Asset Firm pointed to “cussed” US inflation statistics as a purpose for a extra hawkish Fed — and related market nerves.

“The mixture of stronger financial progress and stubbornly excessive core inflation would possibly beginning casting a doubt on the rate of interest outlook throughout the yield curve,” it wrote in the newest version of its common e-newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic mentioned that troublesome circumstances for the Fed had been a “main catalyst behind the selloff in progress and AI shares this 12 months.”

“Rising charges makes the current worth of future company earnings price much less in as we speak’s phrases, whereas larger charges presents competitors for investor capital as properly,” it added.

As the week started, in the meantime, gold returned to the $5,000 mark, whereas US shares futures joined Bitcoin in a reduction bounce off Friday’s lows. 

US greenback at a ten-year crossroads

For each Bitcoin and the broader risk-asset market, US greenback energy is changing into an more and more essential potential volatility catalyst.

The US greenback index (DXY), which loved a reduction rally following a visit to multiyear lows close to 95.5 in late January, is failing to reclaim ranges above 98.

A robust greenback tends to lead to stress for Bitcoin, and whereas the correlation has undergone many modifications in recent times, the long-term development could present bulls with a more reliable tailwind.

“Nonetheless holding that assist. However actually crucial stage for the long-term development,” analyst Aksel Kibar wrote in current greenback commentary. 

“$DXY can supply an amazing commerce setup quickly. Lengthy or brief. regardless of path.”

Kibar eyed DXY presumably now breaking out of a ten-year buying and selling channel to the draw back, however mentioned that extra knowledge could be essential earlier than this was confirmed.

Another perspective comes from Henrik Zeberg, chief macro economist at crypto market perception firm Swissblock.

In an X post final week, Zeberg likened the present relationship between BTC and DXY to early 2021 — round ten months earlier than BTC/USD noticed the blow-off high in its final bull market.

Removed from breaking down, DXY might in actual fact be at the begin of its subsequent bull run.

“Sturdy DXY is BEARISH for BTC – simply not in the preliminary section of the Bull. Probably as a result of ROTATION into US Belongings,” he wrote. 

“In 2021 – we had 12 weeks of BTC rally into the new DXY Bull. The rally gained 130% into the TOP for BTC. I see similar growth once more! +100% acquire in BTC – into its FINAL TOP.”

An accompanying chart prompt a goal for that “last high” at $146,000.

Yen weak spot stays on the radar

For the brief time period, nonetheless, Bitcoin faces one other macro hurdle: a brand new fiscal coverage period in Japan.

After the reelection of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japanese shares surged to document highs — and evaluation now sees destructive impacts for US funding autos and crypto.

“The landslide victory of Sanae Takaichi marks Japan’s shift towards aggressive fiscal stimulus and tolerance for forex depreciation,” analyst XWIN Analysis Japan wrote in a blog post revealed on onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant. 

“The ‘Takaichi Commerce’ has lifted the Nikkei to document highs whereas reshaping international capital flows.”

XWIN referenced findings warning of “slowing inflows” into US fairness exchange-traded funds (ETFs), because of a weaker yen growing the attractiveness of Japanese bonds.

“In opposition to this backdrop, Bitcoin faces short-term draw back threat,” it continued. 

“In risk-off phases, BTC tends to correlate with U.S. equities, permitting equity-led de-risking to spill into crypto markets. This stress doesn’t replicate deterioration in Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals, however cross-asset threat administration.”

As Cointelegraph reported, crypto markets stay extremely delicate to Japan-related information, with one concept even attributing the yen carry commerce to final week’s BTC value crash.

Analyzing the yen scenario forward of the election, Robin Brooks, a senior analysis fellow at Brookings, described its weak spot as a “political legal responsibility.”

“With the election out of the approach, particularly if Takaichi does properly, the optics of Yen depreciation received’t matter almost as a lot,” he predicted. 

“So the election is conceivably a catalyst for the subsequent spherical of Yen weakening.”

Bitcoin miners see “distinctive” trade inflows

Bitcoin miners are busy adjusting to present actuality after Bitcoin’s 15-month lows — however analysis warns {that a} sell-off threat stays.

Associated: Bitcoin difficulty plunges, Buterin sells off Ethereum: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 1 – 7

Miner inflows to exchanges reached their highest ranges since 2024 in current days, with Feb. 5 alone seeing whole deposits of 24,000 BTC.

Describing that tally as “distinctive,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain mentioned that the market is present process a “redistribution section.”

“Notably, this rise in miner exercise comes inside a market surroundings characterised by clear volatility and diminished threat urge for food amongst segments of merchants, which might add an additional layer of short-term promoting stress,” a blog post defined.

“Nevertheless, these inflows don’t essentially point out the begin of a protracted downtrend, however somewhat could signify a pure redistribution section inside the market cycle.”

The traditional Hash Ribbons indicator, which measures intervals of miner stress, likewise continues its response to Bitcoin’s flash crash.

The indicator’s two transferring averages of hash fee present no signal of forming a traditional bullish cross, firmly invalidating its newest “purchase” sign from early January.