Polymarket odds are set by actual merchants placing actual cash behind their beliefs. With $63.6K traded on “Bitcoin Up or Down – March 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET,” the Up/Down possibilities replicate the collective judgment of merchants watching Bitcoin’s stay value in actual time. For 4-hour markets like this one, the chances signify an instantaneous crowd consensus on Bitcoin’s value momentum — most significant because the window approaches its shut, when merchants have probably the most present value info out there. For the most recent stats on Polymarket’s total prediction accuracy, go to the accuracy page on Polymarket.
