“If there isn’t a spot Ethereum ETF approval in Might, then we assume there’s going to be a litigation course of after Might,” Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director and international market strategist at JPMorgan, advised The Block. “We imagine that the probably situation is that the SEC eventually loses this litigation (comparable to what occurred with the Grayscale and Ripple authorized battles final yr), which implies that eventually, the SEC will approve spot Ethereum ETFs (however not as quickly as this Might).”
Notably, Panigirtzoglou has kept the odds of Might approval at 50% regardless of current reports suggesting the SEC is investigating the Ethereum Basis and actively looking for to classify ether (ETH) as a safety by way of authorized avenues.
Earlier this week, Panigirtzoglou and his group said in a report that Ethereum’s easing centralization considerations (reminiscent of Lido’s reducing market share) elevate the possibility that ETH will keep away from being designated as a safety sooner or later. The group identified that community decentralization performs a job in figuring out the classification of a digital token as a safety, as highlighted by the SEC’s launch of the “Hinman paperwork” final June.
Diminished hope for Might approval
A number of analysts have decreased their optimism concerning the SEC’s potential approval for a spot ether ETF by Might. Final week, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, for example, said his odds for Might approval stay pessimistic at 25%, down from 70% in January.
The SEC is presently soliciting comments on a handful of spot ETH ETF purposes, together with from Constancy, Grayscale and Bitwise. Feedback for all three are due later this month.
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