XRP (XRP) has misplaced greater than 40% since hitting a multi-year excessive close to $3.40 in January, and onchain knowledge suggests the downtrend might deepen in the weeks forward.
“Denial” previous previous 75-90% XRP crashes is again
XRP’s Web Unrealized Revenue/Loss (NUPL) data from Glassnode suggests the token could also be heading for one more prolonged downturn.
The metric, which gauges the combination unrealized features or losses of XRP holders, has traditionally served as a dependable barometer of potential trend reversals. In previous market cycles, NUPL has peaked in the so-called “euphoria” zone simply earlier than main price tops.
In 2018, XRP soared above $3.00 as NUPL signaled excessive optimism, solely to break down 90% to under $0.30 as sentiment deteriorated by means of “denial” and into “capitulation.”
XRP NUPL historic efficiency chart. Supply: Glassnode
An identical sample performed out in 2021 when XRP hit $1.96 earlier than sliding 75% to $0.50 amid a pointy shift from euphoria to worry.
As of March 2025, XRP’s NUPL has as soon as once more entered the “denial” zone, with the price buying and selling round $2.50 following a powerful rally. If the sample holds, XRP might face additional downsides akin to the bear markets in 2018 and 2021.
XRP/USD weekly price chart. Supply: TradingView
XRP now faces related dangers, buying and selling sideways between $1.80 and $3.40, following a blistering 585% rally in simply two months.
The rally accelerated after pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump gained the US presidential election, whereas hypothesis grew round Ripple’s potential victory in its SEC lawsuit and the attainable approval of a spot XRP ETF in 2025.
Associated: SEC dropping XRP case was ‘priced in’ since Trump’s election: Analysts
Because of these supportive fundamentals, some merchants stated XRP’s ongoing consolidation could finally result in a breakout. That features market analyst Stellar Babe, who anticipates XRP’s price to gain 450%.
Technical fractal suggests XRP is topping out
XRP’s weekly chart suggests a bearish fractal from 2021 could also be unfolding once more.
In each 2021 and 2025, the XRP price fashioned an area high whereas the RSI printed a decrease excessive, signaling bearish divergence and weakening upside momentum.
XRP/USD weekly price chart. Supply: TradingView
Again in 2021, that divergence preceded an 85.50% sell-off that broke under the 50-week (the crimson wave) and 200-week (the blue wave) exponential shifting averages (EMA) helps.
In 2025, XRP has once more proven an analogous RSI divergence, adopted by a 40%-plus decline from its latest highs. It now risks an extended decline towards the 50-week EMA at round $1.58, down about 21.6% from the present price ranges by June.
If the correction deepens and breaks under the 50-week EMA help, historical past suggests XRP might slide additional towards the 200-week EMA round $0.87, or about 60% from the present price ranges.
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
