Briefly
- Myriad Markets offers ~32% odds MetaMask launches a token earlier than November; Polymarket merchants value larger for a 2025 drop.
- CEO Joe Lubin has confirmed a token is coming and says the timeline could also be “prior to anticipated,” stoking airdrop hypothesis.
- Regulatory danger looms: SEC’s lawsuit towards ConsenSys may delay or form the token’s design, distribution, and launch window.
Is MetaMask lastly launching a token? Ethereum co-founder and Consensys CEO Joe Lubin stated this week that the long-awaited token tied to the favored crypto pockets is “on the way in which” and “might come prior to you’d count on”—and Myriad merchants are betting on simply how quickly which may imply.
On the time of this writing, a prediction market on Myriad Markets currently put the chances of MetaMask launching an official token earlier than November 1 at about 32% Sure. No timeline has been introduced, however merchants do not seem to imagine that Consensys is able to roll out the token in a matter of weeks.
(Disclaimer: Consensys is one of 22 investors in an editorially impartial Decrypt, and Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt‘s dad or mum firm, DASTAN.)
Polymarket customers, in the meantime, give a 46% likelihood that the token will launch by the end of the year.
Lubin made the most recent feedback in an interview with The Block this week, explaining {that a} native token (nicknamed MASK) can be a part of MetaMask’s decentralization roadmap.
MetaMask was created by Consensys in 2016 as a part of its “mesh” of Ethereum-focused initiatives, and it has remained one among its wholly owned merchandise ever since. When Consensys raised its Collection D funding spherical in 2022 at a $7 billion valuation, MetaMask (and Infura) had been explicitly cited as core income drivers inside the corporate—not portfolio investments.
Consensys has been dangling the prospect of a token since 2021, when Lubin first confirmed it might be a part of a broader plan to decentralize the pockets’s governance. Over the following few years, Lubin repeated {that a} token was coming however careworn it wouldn’t be a fast cash-grab; the crew wished to keep away from a speculative frenzy and focus on “progressive decentralization.”
Within the meantime, MetaMask’s official channels even warned customers about rip-off airdrops, confirming no launch date had been set. Over time, MetaMask rolled out staking and bridging options, whereas Consensys lately launched the Linea layer-2 Ethereum community and LINEA token—strikes extensively seen as laying the groundwork for a token financial system.
MetaMask additionally simply launched a stablecoin called mUSD, which offers some proof that infrastructure and regulatory groundwork are being laid. The stablecoin is reside on Ethereum and Linea, suggesting they’re each getting ready user-facing options and on-ramps for the token period.
What we nonetheless don’t know
Regardless of sturdy hints, a number of vital particulars stay unclear:
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Timing: Lubin’s statements are imprecise. “Ahead of anticipated” is subjective and doesn’t give a agency date. We don’t know if “sooner” means weeks, months, or simply “inside the identical 12 months.”
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Tokenomics and utility: What precisely the token will do is simply partially described. Governance? Rewards? Entry to options? There are recommendations, however no full white paper or specs have been printed.
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Distribution/qualification: Who will obtain the token? Will or not it’s retroactive, through airdrop, or earned by exercise? These particulars will not be but public.
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Regulatory danger: Any token tied to a serious pockets with many U.S. customers will draw regulatory scrutiny. MetaMask and Consensys must navigate legal guidelines round securities, know-your-customer (KYC), token issuance, and what counts as utility vs. monetary return.
The takeaway
Placing this collectively, right here’s a sensible wager: MetaMask is very prone to launch a token, and apparently sooner somewhat than later. The existence of Myriad’s prediction market (“No” being extra doubtless earlier than November) reveals there’s affordable skepticism, however government confirmations from Lubin push the likelihood considerably upward.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the writer are for informational functions solely and don’t represent monetary, funding, or different recommendation.
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