Polymarket merchants have all however written off the likelihood that the Donald Trump administration’s proposed federal cryptocurrency reserve will likely be operational this yr, marking a dramatic reversal from the optimism seen at the start of 2025.
Expectations surged in early March after the White Home issued an govt order making a Strategic Bitcoin reserve and a broader digital asset stockpile.
The directive referred to as for federal companies to pool Bitcoin and different seized digital belongings right into a unified reserve and barred the federal government from liquidating Bitcoin earmarked for that function.
Days later, President Trump urged the reserve may finally broaden to incorporate Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano, feedback that briefly fueled retail hypothesis that the U.S. was getting ready a long-term crypto accumulation technique.
However the order by no means established authority to purchase belongings, allotted no federal funding, and didn’t define custody, reporting, or regulatory mechanisms wanted to construct or handle such a reserve.
As an alternative, it relied totally on seized holdings and undefined “budget-neutral” measures, leaving analysts skeptical {that a} nationwide crypto reserve may ever perform in follow.
Market Response Turns Skeptical
Researchers and coverage analysts shortly questioned whether or not a sovereign crypto reserve might be viable with out congressional backing, standardized accounting guidelines, or a transparent operational framework.
Some warned that centralizing massive quantities of digital belongings may introduce new political and systemic dangers.
Tokens named within the administration’s early feedback, together with XRP, ADA and SOL, noticed temporary bumps earlier than retreating as doubts grew.
Additionally Learn: Strategy Vs. MARA: VanEck Analyst Reveals Which Stock Tracks Bitcoin More Closely
Regardless of the shortage of progress, the manager order stays in impact; no alternative directive has been issued and no official cancellation has been introduced. On paper, the reserve nonetheless exists, however with no seen steps towards implementation.
Prediction Markets Mark Down Expectations
This hole between coverage language and execution has pushed prediction markets to reassess the initiative with stark finality.
Polymarket contracts tied to a functioning U.S. Bitcoin reserve by the top of the yr traded above 60% in February and March. By December, that determine had slipped to 2%.
Markets tied to an XRP reserve adopted a good steeper fall, sliding from above 20% in March to 1% by year-end.
Ethereum-linked markets moved from roughly 30–40% in early spring to 1% in December.
Throughout all of those markets, merchants are successfully concluding that the U.S. won’t set up a significant crypto reserve this yr, that means no actual accumulation program, no public steadiness sheet, and no institutional infrastructure to handle one.
For now, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve sits as a declared coverage objective with out the instruments or pathways required to make it real.
Learn Subsequent: Scaramucci Says Solana Will Become An Industry Standard Within Five Years
