Bitcoin (BTC) might get better from its ongoing hunch and reach $150,000 by the year’s end, based on a latest Bernstein outlook.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin should maintain the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows flip optimistic.
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Sidelined capital should move again into crypto, and the quantum risk must be addressed.
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Extra price cuts from the Fed in 2026 will convey risk-on buyers again to BTC.
Bitcoin should maintain above this key development line
One situation that has persistently outlined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the value motion across the 200-week easy transferring common (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Traditionally, this wave has acted as a magnet throughout deep drawdowns and a strong flooring as soon as promoting stress subsides.
In each 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed close to the 200-week SMA earlier than coming into multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market noticed BTC value briefly breaking beneath it, however the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will scale back the percentages of a chronic, 2022-style capitulation, whereas conserving the trail open for a brand new bull section.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows should return
One other prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets monitoring first-time and short-term holders present roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the very best since 2022.
In wholesome bull markets, pullbacks entice recent capital and speed up participation. Nevertheless, within the present market, the other is occurring, based on IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Present readings resemble post-ATH transitions, through which marginal consumers exit and value is pushed by inside rotation, not web inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday submit.
Associated: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?
In prior cycles, together with 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals solely emerged as soon as new-investor flows flipped decisively again into optimistic territory.
The identical should occur in 2026 to make a robust bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF net flows turned positive on Monday, which may very well be a primary signal that these investor flows are beginning to come again.
Sidelined Tether should move again into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the total crypto market has risen in latest weeks to check a well-recognized 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means buyers are parking cash in stablecoins and avoiding danger. Falling dominance often alerts the other: capital rotating again into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% space have aligned with strong Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was adopted by a 76% rally over 140 days, whereas one other preceded 169% features over 180 days. An analogous setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the important thing ceiling sat close to 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that vary in Might 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, additional reflecting the inverse correlation between the 2.
Because of this, Tether dominance should fall to begin a brand new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears should subside
One other headwind to beat for Bitcoin is the potential quantum threat. These are theories that future quantum computer systems might break Bitcoin’s cryptography, placing BTC wallets in danger.
Some word that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already at risk.
A number of security-focused sources body this as a risk that’s nonetheless far off sooner or later.
For instance, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Again stated Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for “20 to 40 years,” including the community will be “quantum prepared” nicely earlier than it turns into an actual drawback.
Bitcoin Optech additionally noted that near-term quantum danger could be concentrated in edge circumstances, similar to reused addresses, quite than the whole community directly.
For Bitcoin to construct a bull case in 2026, this risk have to be addressed for consumers to regain confidence.
Doing simply that, Coinbase and Technique have launched initiatives, bringing in consultants and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin safety upgrades.
Extra price cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s probabilities of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 enhance if the US Federal Reserve delivers at the very least two price cuts subsequent 12 months, which is what CME futures pricing was at present implying as of February.
Decrease charges usually scale back the attraction of yield-bearing belongings like U.S. Treasurys, pushing buyers to hunt increased returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor danger belongings, together with equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump might push the brand new Fed chair for 3 price cuts in 2026, based on Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Avenue Corp.
Three price cuts this 12 months might additional enhance Bitcoin’s attraction amongst danger merchants.
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