Bitcoin Falls Under $70K As US VIX Index Signals Risk-off Conditions

Bitcoin (BTC) value continues to compress underneath $70,000 on Tuesday, and knowledge means that the chance of latest year-to-date lows stays if bulls fail to show the extent into help.

The whipsaw nature of Bitcoin’s value surged as US market volatility climbed again above a important stage, and Treasury yields noticed their sharpest weekly drop in months.

Analysts recommend this macro backdrop might trace at an prolonged slowdown section for BTC value, whereas onchain knowledge reveals merchants nonetheless ready for a stronger bullish catalyst.

Key takeaways:

The CBOE Volatility Index at 22.50 alerts a rising market volatility and risk-off positioning for traders.
The US 10-year yield is at 4.02%, nearing its 200-day transferring common pattern for the primary time since March 2022.

Why Bitcoin might stay a “risk-off” asset for now

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the 30-day volatility expectations in US equities, has climbed to 22.50 in 2026 and is approaching its highest stage since November 21, 2025.

A rising VIX usually displays the rising uncertainty and diminished urge for food for threat property, a “risk-off” setup that has traditionally pressured Bitcoin.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Government, Bitcoin Price, Adoption, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bonds, Binance, Tether, Price Analysis, Stablecoin, Market Analysis, Yields — *Bitcoin vs. VIX correlation chart. Supply:* *Cointelegraph/TradingView*

For context, the chart reveals a repeated inverse sample between Bitcoin and the VIX across the 20 stage. When the VIX spiked above 20 in December 2024, BTC fashioned a high at $104,000. A stronger surge above 25 in March via April 2025 aligned with a pointy BTC correction to $80,000.

One other transfer above 20 in This autumn aligned with Bitcoin’s cycle excessive close to $126,000, and BTC’s drop beneath $100,000 additionally got here because the VIX spiked above the edge.

On the identical time, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3.75% final week to 4.05% from 4.28%, its steepest weekly decline since September 2025. Now at 4.02%, the yield is about to retest its 200-period easy transferring common (SMA) for the primary time since March 2022.

Falling yields mirror defensive positioning throughout conventional markets, reinforcing the cautious tone.

The Crypto Worry & Greed Index dropped to 7 final week, one in all its lowest readings on file. Asset administration firm Bitwise explained in its weekly e-newsletter that whereas excessive concern has aligned with cycle bottoms, BTC’s onchain provide in revenue solely briefly touched the 50% stage in the course of the current sell-off. This stage has marked deeper bear market resets previously.

Stablecoin liquidity progress slows down

CryptoQuant knowledge shows that the stablecoin reserves elevated by $11.4 billion within the 30 days main as much as Nov. 5, 2025, reflecting robust shopping for energy getting into the market.

Nevertheless, because the bearish section expanded, stablecoin reserves fell by $8.4 billion by Dec. 23, 2025, signaling that capital was transferring out.

Over the previous month, the reserves throughout numerous exchanges have declined by a modest $2 billion. This marked a slowdown in comparison with the sharp outflows in This autumn, however an absence of great inflows pointed to restrained liquidity situations.

Binance dominated change liquidity, holding $47.5 billion in USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) reserves, roughly 65% of complete centralized change balances, together with $42.3 billion in USDt, which is up 36%, year-on-year.

Relating to stablecoin inflows and reserves, crypto analyst Maartunn said USDC inflows to exchanges are trending decrease once more, indicating that new liquidity has but to return at scale.