Bitcoin (BTC) rewards buyers essentially the most who maintain it for at least three years, in accordance to data shared by André Dragosch, head of analysis at Bitwise Europe.
Key takeaways:
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Holding BTC for at least three years has traditionally slashed losses to simply 0.70%.
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Bitcoin worth predictions for 2026–2027 cluster round $100,000–$150,000 in bullish eventualities.
Lengthy-term Bitcoin holders hardly ever lose
A Bitwise evaluation reviewed Bitcoin’s worth historical past between July 17, 2010, and Feb. 11, 2026, concluding that the chance of being within the purple drops to simply 0.70% when BTC is held for at least three years.
In different phrases, practically all rolling three-year entry factors in Bitcoin’s historical past ended up worthwhile. Past three years, the danger of loss fell even additional: 0.2% over 5 years and 0% over ten years.
Merchants holding Bitcoin for lower than three years confronted a a lot greater danger of loss.
Intraday patrons, for occasion, had a 47.1% probability of being underwater. That chance stayed elevated at 44.7% over one week, 43.2% over one month, and 24.3% over a one-year holding interval.
Stronger arms are 90% in revenue already
The realized worth metric additionally exhibits declines in holders’ losses over multi-year home windows.
As of Saturday, Bitcoin was down by roughly 50% from its October 2025 excessive, buying and selling for round $65,000.
That was method above its three-to-five-year realized worth of $34,780, that means buyers who purchased and held by that window have been nonetheless sitting on an roughly 90% revenue.
In the meantime, some merchants argue the continuing Bitcoin price correction could extend toward $30,000.
A transfer to that degree would wipe out a lot of the cohort’s cushion, pushing the three–5 12 months band nearer to breakeven. That might additional check whether or not these holders begin including to promote strain or sit tight.
Conversely, most merchants who purchased Bitcoin previously two years have been underwater.
The price foundation of the 6m–12m cohort, entities which were holding BTC for up to a 12 months, was round $101,250, leaving them with roughly a 35% in unrealized loss as of Saturday.
Nevertheless, the 1y–2y cohort’s price foundation was decrease, round $78,150, translating into a few 15% unrealized loss.
The hole bolstered the identical sample seen within the holding-period information: the longer the holding window, the smaller the drawdown tends to be throughout corrections.
How excessive can BTC worth go?
Longer-term forecasts nonetheless cluster round a handful of upside targets for 2026–2027.
For example, world brokerage agency Bernstein maintained its $150,000 BTC price call for 2026, pointing to comparatively modest internet outflows of about 7% from spot Bitcoin ETFs, whilst BTC’s worth fell by 50%.
“The present Bitcoin worth motion is a mere disaster of confidence,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani mentioned.
Customary Chartered, in the meantime, warned of a possible “ultimate capitulation” part that might drag BTC toward $50,000 amid weak ETF flows and a tougher macro backdrop, earlier than recovering towards $100,000 by the tip of 2026.
Trying into 2027, Timothy Peterson’s historic “common return” framework points to $122,000 by early 2027, with excessive odds that BTC trades above that determine.
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